Solving Somalia’s Food Security Emergency

Two years of poor rainfall, insecurity and rising world food prices have led to a devastating food security emergency in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and probably Eritrea. Somalia is the epicentre of the regional crisis, and without massive food, nutrition and livelihood interventions, the famine is likely to continue spreading. The death rate will be compounded by seasonal rains that will spread disease among the already severely weakened population. Elderly people and children are worst hit. The UN warns that 750,000 could die by December. To prevent this from happening, the international community must increase humanitarian assistance efforts, removing all remaining barriers to aid, and support longer-term efforts to promote peace and stability. Read more

Kenya: Kibaki Gambles On Regional War With Al Shabaab

As the Kenyan army ventured deeper into Somalia, in its first cross-border campaign in 44 years, a regional grand strategy to deal with Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen is beginning to emerge.

Kenya's intervention was under detailed consideration several weeks before Nairobi's official declaration of war against Al Shabaab on 15 October. There is little substance to media claims that United States diplomats based in Nairobi were surprised by Kenya's operation. Both the USA and Britain run substantive regional counter-terrorism operations from Nairobi.

Although the mobilisation was initially announced as a 'hot pursuit' operation against Somali-based groups who had kidnapped tourists in north-eastern Kenya, President Mwai Kibaki's government and Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) quickly characterised the military campaign as a coordinated effort, even if Kenya appeared to be acting unilaterally. Read more

South Sudan and Sudan Back to War? A View from Juba

The recent volatility of the Sudan-South Sudan relationship raises important questions about why peace and stability between the two countries is so tenuous. From interviews conducted in Juba, South Sudan’s leaders appear open to continued talks and to the establishment of improved relations with Khartoum, especially in response to international pressure to do so. But there is a perceptible shift within the leadership in Juba toward disengagement with Sudan.

The dominance of hardliners in Khartoum politics, a long history of broken agreements with Khartoum, Juba’s doubts about the international community’s ability to fairly mediate between South Sudan and Sudan, and a post-independence sentiment that South Sudan must assert its sovereignty in response to continued Northern aggression have all contributed to a growing feeling that negotiations with Khartoum may not be the best means of achieving Juba’s strategic interests. But Juba’s reactions to Khartoum remain sensitive to cues from the international community, a legacy of international actors’ deep involvement in the negotiation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and support for the successful independence of South Sudan. Maintaining a positive image before the international community is still critically important to South Sudan’s leaders. Read more

Mali: Five Months of Crisis: Armed Rebellion and Military Coup

Since the beginning of 2012, Mali has been faced with the worst crisis of its recent history, one that has questioned both the integrity of its territory as well as almost 20 years of political stability.

A Tuareg rebellion, fueled by fighters arriving from Libya after the fall of Mouammar Gaddafi, launched attacks against the Malian garrisons in the North of the country in early January 2012. The armed groups also committed serious infringements of international humanitarian law by executing the soldiers they caught in combat. The Malian army responded by bombing indiscriminately the civilian population.

Northern Mali has been weakened by several factors over the years, in particular: the disinvestment of the Malian state and the lack of development in this area which has caused much frustration; the development of all kinds of trafficking [drugs, trade of transnational migrants, weapons, vehicles, cigarettes]; and the presence of Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb [AQIM] who transformed certain areas of the region into a safe haven where these groups hold hostages. Read more

Institutional Conflict Settlement in Divided Societies: The Role of Subgroup Identities in Self-Government Arrangements

Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases they fail to bring about lasting peace. The paper argues that their negligence of intraethnic factors accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal or religious subgroups. This internal heterogeneity is often obscured by overarching collective ethnic identities that are fostered by interethnic conflict. However, when such interethnic conflict is settled, these subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This “resurgence” can lead to subgroup conflict about the political and economic resources provided through intergroup institutional settlements. Such conflict can in turn undermine the peace‐making effect of intergroup arrangements. Different subgroup identity constellations make such destructive effects more or less likely. The paper focuses on self‐government provisions in the aftermath of violent interethnic conflict and argues that lasting intergroup arrangements are especially challenging when they involve “contested” ethnic groups. Read more

The coup in Mali: the result of a long-term crisis or spillover from the Libyan civil war?

The current crisis in Mali was not unexpected, although most national and international players were eager to maintain an unrealistic view of political developments in this Sahelian country. This crisis reflects the decay of state institutions and practices: the Malian army collapsed and patronage does not mean democracy. Its crisis is built on four dynamics that have their own effects: the debatable implementation of previous peace settlements with the Tuareg insurgency; the growing economic importance of AQIM activities in the Sahelian region; the collapse of the Qaddafi regime in Libya; and the inability or unwillingness of Algeria to play the role of regional hegemon now that its rival (Libya) has stopped doing so.

While the Tuareg rebellion has been able to gain from the collapse of the Malian army in the north, it should be noted that the many armed groups have different agendas, and position themselves differently towards the local population and the Malian state. What is unclear is whether they will be able to co-exist on the same territory while trafficking and a protection economy are the only sustainable resources.

The jihadi aspect of some components of the insurgency has to be understood in context and should not be seen as erasing social and economic differences in a heterogeneous northern Mali. It proves the successful demonstration effect that small groups such as AQIM and Ansar ed-Din can have. It should also draw more attention to a regional context that could provide radicals with a wider audience and credibility by building opportunistic coalitions. Read more

Since December 2010, the speed, suddenness and scope of events in North Africa and the Middle East have taken everyone by surprise. They nevertheless had to happen. Given the universality of human nature – differences between a European and an Arab are ultimately of minor importance – the processes that began in Europe in the seventeenth century and spread throughout the world would have inevitably reached the Arab countries.

For the past four decades, depending on their level of advancement, the Arab countries have experienced cultural, ideational, demographic and anthropological transformation similar to what Europe had been through since the English (1640–1660) and French Revolutions (1789).

Fertility in some Arab countries is similar to or lower than in Norway, due to a rising age of marriage and the increasing use of contraception. At the same time, secularism is on the rise in society, if not in politics. There is no reason to believe the Arab world would have been an exception, because Arabs are not inherently averse to human progress. Read more

: The recent trends in the West African sub-region display various contradictions. On the one hand, certain political and economic developments give reason for optimism. On the other hand, new and very serious threats have emerged over the last years which – if not addressed adequately – could undercut gains made and erode stability and security in the whole region. On the positive side, economic growth rates have been promising, and elections have become well established as the only legitimate way of changing the government. Despite remaining problems, as with the post-electoral developments in Côte d’Ivoire, no major conflicts have shattered the region in the recent past. The election-related experiences of Togo, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria allow for cautious optimism. However, it has to be emphasized that elections are just the beginning of democratic processes and cannot replace institutional reforms, most notably in the security sector. Read more

Gender, Conflict, and Development

This review addresses the gender dimensions of intrastate conflict. It is organized around eight areas or themes that are related to the World Bank’s agenda on gender, conflict, and development: (i) gender and warfare; (ii) gender and sexual violence; (iii) gender and formal peace processes; (iv) gender and informal peace processes; (v) gender and the post-conflict legal framework; (vi) gender and work; (vii) gender and rehabilitating social services; and (viii) gender and community- driven development. For each theme, the authors have analyzed the gender-specific roles of women and men before, during, and after conflict, the gender role changes throughout conflict, the development challenges in sustaining positive gender role changes and mitigating negative effects, and the policy options for addressing these gender roles, dynamics, and challenges. The suggested policy options are intended to be gender- as well as conflict-sensitive, and ideally should contribute to more equal gender relations. The relevance and applicability of the policy options are identified and key considerations outlined that the Bank would need to take into account in assessing policy options. Finally, further research areas are suggested on the gender, conflict, and development nexus. Read more

Urban Refugee Protection in Cairo: The Role of Communication, Information and Technology

The sharing of information about asylum – its rules, rights, processes and privileges – is an inherent part of refugee protection and service provision. With the rise of new technologies, research and policy has paid increasing attention to the use and potentials of changing channels of communication. Refugees increasingly live in urban settings in the global south. Yet little is known about how communication about asylum happens in such cities, or what kinds of issues need to be navigated to effectively deliver information to diverse and dispersed communities within them.

Cairo, Egypt, with its large population of refugees from Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia amongst others, is a significant case. Over nearly a decade, demonstrations by refugees at UNHCR have thrown up issues of urban refugee protection, and the political and civil unrest of 2011-12 has presented further problems. The Arab Spring brought communication’s importance in Cairo to a global stage. This paper explores circulation of information about asylum in the city, barriers that have blocked and capacities that might expand its way, based on ethnographic research in Cairo in 2011-12.

The research explores two related themes. First, what have been the dynamics, gaps and constraints of asylum-related information delivery in Cairo, and what impact have they had on refugee protection and service provision? Second, how are communication channels being used to provide information to refugees and asylum seekers, and what capacities and cautions should be considered for each? The paper first reviews related research, project methodology and Cairo’s refugee context. Then it attends to the two research themes, highlighting the role of information in refugee protection, the potential for new and old technologies to help, and the importance of attention to matters of clarity, language and audience
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Conflict in the Somali Region of Ethiopia: Can Education Promote Peace-Building

 fThis report is an analysis of the links between conflict and education in Somali Region, and examines if and how improved education might contribute to peace and security objectives. While recognizing the critical role of education in the development of the region, the analysis questions a causal framework in which improved education alone will lead to short-term or long-term conflict transformation. This finding is related to the deep-rooted and complex causes of conflict in the region, and the reality that current education services do not engage directly with the main conflict actors. The report makes recommendations for reshaping education strategies to enhance possible impact on conflict.  read more