Wednesday 21 December 2016

The GCC Is Expanding To Eritrea, And It’s Not Good For Ethiopia

Add to it the Qatari soldiers that have already been present on the ground for a few years to “mediate” the border dispute with Djibouti, and the most important members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have unexpectedly converged in what many might think to be among one of the most unlikeliest of places. While it may have been difficult to foresee this happening, in hindsight it actually makes quite a lot of sense, and contrary to the conventional assessment that this is about Yemen, the argument can be made that it’s also just as much about Ethiopia as well. Unbeknownst to many, Qatar is the “ox driving the cart” in this case, and whether they like it or not, the rest of the GCC states will be reluctantly forced to follow its destabilizing lead if Doha decides to throw Ethiopia into chaos.
The research expands on the briefing first laid out by South Front and should be seen as a continuation of their original work. It begins by setting the context for what’s been going on along the Horn of Africa lately and how the GCC’s military advances fit into the larger context of recent history. The piece then investigates the levers of influence for how Qatar could destabilize Ethiopia as well as its radical ideological motivations for doing so. Finally, the article concludes with a scenario study of how Qatar could
readmore

UAE Presence Expands in Africa



UAE Presence Expands in Africa

www.shephardmedia.com | December 20, 2016

The United Arab Emirates has signed an agreement to establish a second foreign military base in the Horn of Africa.

The new base, according to the source present at the negotiations, will be established at the coastal city of Berbera in Somaliland and will be an air and naval base. According to the government source the MoU was signed in the last week of September when a senior Somaliland delegation was in the UAE.

The self governing semi-autonomous Somaliland and the UAE enjoyed close political, economic and military ties since 2012.

The cooperation between the two countries intensified after the UAE’s involvement in the Yemen operations where the region’s strategic location south of the Bab al Mandeb strait proved crucial to their projection capabilities.

An area of 40km sq compromising of Berbera airport and sea front have been provided to the UAE for a period of 25 years and is renewable, the source added.

The base has been provided in exchange for security training, support and protection to the autonomous region, the source added, providing a much needed security blanket to Somaliland which borders Somalia to the south.

Just five kilometres away from the base UAE ports giant, Dubai Ports World, has signed earlier this year a $442 million deal to develop Berbera port. The 30 year deal will see the commercial port expanded and doubled in size next to a large free zone and other infrastructure projects to provide a new gate way to Ethiopia, Africa’s fastest growing economy.

According to Alexander Mello, security analyst at New York based Horizon Client Access the UAE’s plan to operate their Eritrean Assab base simultaneously with the Berbera base is quite plausible.

Assab is still a pretty austere base, the work the UAE is doing there – especially the the expansion of the hangars and apron and building a new docking facility for UAE vessels 10km north of of current Assab port – is consistent with a long-term UAE presence,’ Mello said.

The UAE has been putting up aircraft shelters and deployed half a squadron of Mirage 2000 fighters to the base in September, Mello added, which again is consistent with a long-term presence.

‘They might be speeding up development of Berbera now to have a base out of Houthi missile range. It’s possible Assab will be focused more on supporting ops in Yemen and Berbera will be primarily used for conducting naval and air ops in the Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden with the U.S. and Egypt,’ he said.

Shehab al Makahaleh, political analyst at consultancy group Geostrategic Media, said that despite the UAE previously adopting a cautious foreign policy the recent financial chaos, the Arab Spring and Islamic militancy has forced the UAE to safeguard their national security by securing major sea ports in Africa.

‘The UAE is increasingly focused on projecting military power, the unrest has prompted the UAE to have its own base in the Eritrean port of Assab. In 2015, this simple port was built up from empty desert into a modern airbase, deep-water port, and military training facility,’ he said.

Al Makahleh said that ‘the rapid militarization’ in the Horn of Africa by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, China, Russia, the UK, France – and the American presence on the west coast – under the aim to preserve the security and stability of the region has turned out to be a competition for its resources.

Source: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/mil-log/uae-presence-expands-africa/

Tuesday 20 December 2016

Uganda: Eritrean Businessman Robbed of Shs8 Billion, Killed


Kampala — A UPDF soldier at the rank of captain has been arrested in connection with the kidnap and murder of an Eritrean businessman with the intention of stealing 2 millon euros (Shs8 billion) from him.
Capt Hakim Mangeni and his alleged accomplices; Mr Ben Lumu and Rucy Katuramu were arrested by the police Flying Squad Unit (FSU) at the weekend over allegations of killing Deniel Weldo.
SOURCE  http://allafrica.com/stories/201612200122.html

Egypt-Gulf relations tested by Saudi visit to Ethiopia dam

source    Middle East Eye      Egyptian media lashed out at Saudi Arabia over a high-level Saudi delegation visit to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a short trip to Ethiopia on Friday. Experts said the decision to visit the GERD was an act of revenge against Egypt that could deepen tensions between the two countries.
Ahmed al-Khateeb, a senior adviser at the Saudi royal court and board chairman of the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), visited the site and met Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and other officials to discuss GERD’s construction project.
Khateeb’s trip came after the Saudi agriculture minister visited Ethiopia last week, making it the second visit by a Saudi official to Addis Ababa in less than a week.
'You will soon hear that we have the capacity to intervene in the Gulf region's affairs and provide support for the royals who oppose current Saudi policies'
- Tarek Fahmy, Egyptian professor
On Saturday, Egyptian news commentator Mohamed Ali Khayr called on Riyadh to "review its policies before it can only blame itself for what ensues".
"Egypt is not obliged to continue to contain its reactions towards Saudi Arabia... any interference [by Saudi Arabia] in the GERD project implies a direct threat to Egypt’s national security," he said on Egyptian TV.
Khayr went as far as accusing Saudi policy makers of being "amateurs" that have caused bilateral relations between the two countries to completely break down as a result of this visit.
On Saturday, Ahmed Moussa, another journalist, threatened Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states that if they were to invest in Ethiopia, their investment would be lost in the Nile.

< Workers build the Grand Renaissance Dam near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border (AFP)
Moussa continued to condemn the visit over his talk show on Sada al-Balad, an Egyptian satellite TV channel.
"The GERD will not last forever, a volcano might erupt at any moment. So for those looking to invest billions [of dollars] in this project, your money might as well be going to waste," said Moussa.

'Egypt has many cards'

Egyptian media personalities were joined in their denunciation of the Saudi visit by several academics who voiced strong criticisms against the Gulf state for its policy.
"You will soon hear that we [Egypt] have the capacity to intervene in the Gulf region's affairs and provide support for the royals who oppose current Saudi policies," Tarek Fahmy, a lecturer at the American University in Cairo, told viewers of Sada al-Balad on Saturday.
Fahmy warned Saudi Arabia that Egypt’s patience is waning and that Cairo will no longer accept actions that threaten its national security.

READ: Ethiopian mega-dam project leaves Egypt high and dry

"Egypt has many cards to pressure Saudi Arabia, which we have yet to use," Fahmy said.
However, he added that Cairo wanted to continue its friendly relations with its "siblings in the Gulf".
Meanwhile, Egyptian political science professor Hassan Nafaa told Daily News Egypt on Sunday that the visit was an indirect message from Saudi Arabia that it could align itself with anyone if Egypt does not comply with Saudi foreign policy.
Nafaa said the visit will likely increase tensions in Saudi-Egyptian relations, saying that Cairo would not be tolerating Saudi’s implicit support for the GERD.

Many Eyptians fear that the waters of the Nile will drop with the opening of the Ethiopia dam (AFP)
The 6,000-megawatt GERD, which is not yet 70 percent complete, is situated close to Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. While Ethiopia hopes it will be able to export energy generated by the dam, Egypt has long expressed concerns that the dam might reduce the amount of Nile water it receives, thus affecting its main source of irrigation water.
Relations between Cairo and Riyadh have soured since Egypt voted in favour of a UN Security Council draft resolution by Russia regarding the Syrian civil war.

READ: 'Our children will die of thirst'

Egypt took an opposing position to Saudi Arabia by choosing to support the Syrian government and army against rebel fighters  Saudi's envoy to the UN described Egypt’s vote as "painful".
Since the vote, the Saudi ministry of petroleum said that Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, has suspended its oil aid to Egypt but that the five-year agreement is still in effect.
Egyptian officials, including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, have repeatedly denied any tension with Saudi Arabia.

Qatari-Egyptian relations shaken

As Egypt’s alliance with Saudi Arabia continues to deteriorate, bilateral relations with Qatar have also been tested in a new series of obstacles.
Tensions grew after a Qatari national wrote on Twitter that Qatar will no longer be issuing work permits for Egyptians.
"Qatar has been extremely patient in regard to Egypt’s 'dirty' policies. It is now time for payback," he added in the tweet.
After the tweet was mistakenly ascribed to deputy Qatari minister of trade Sultan bin Rashed al-Khater, news of Qatar’s "new policies" spread across Egyptian media platforms with Egyptian commentators condemning the alleged move as an official decision to deny Egyptians entry into the Gulf state.
'Circulating information without verifying it has resulted in disastrous ramifications'
- Jaber al-Qarmouty, Egyptian commentator
Spokesperson for the Egyptian prime ministry, Ashraf Sultan, issued a statement denying that Egyptian labourers had been expelled from Saudi Arabia and Qatar and confirming that the news was only a rumour.
In a television interview on Egyptian satellite TV channel Alassema 2, Sultan said: "We are completely transparent when it comes to information we receive. Any changes would be communicated directly to you all."
Sultan said citizens should verify information before circulating it to avoid the spread of rumours such as this, it was reported by Elwehda news website.
At the same time, the minister of manpower, Mohamed Saafan, denied reports that Qatar had decided to reject applications by Egyptians for work permits, adding that there were 150,000 Egyptians working in Qatar at the moment.
Saafan said he met with the Qatari minister of labour on Thursday to discuss the rights of Egyptian workers in Qatar, highlighting that Egyptian-Qatari relations continue to be fully respectful.

READ: Destruction of dams: Will IS carry through with its threats?

Meanwhile, Egyptian commentator Jaber al-Qarmouty condemned the Egyptian media for circulating the tweet and building false reports upon it.
"Circulating information without verifying it has resulted in disastrous ramifications, which in this case can only be considered a slap in the face of Egyptian media personalities," Elwehda news website quoted Qarmouty as saying.
Relations between Qatar and Egypt have been shaken since Doha showed support for former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi  who was ousted in a military coup led by then General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Qatar has also voiced support for Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, which was outlawed by Cairo.
Egypt has accused Qatar of using state-funded Al Jazeera news network to tint the image of Egypt’s military by publishing news and documentaries that show the army in a negative light source

Plaut’s Commendable Input Towards Making Eritrea Better Understood

 Woldeyesus Ammar
Source: Harrnet
The year just ending also happened to be a period in which a good number of publications were released for the wider public with the yet unfulfilled aim of making Eritrea and the situation of its people better understood by others. Among them were  the official submission to the UN General Assembly and the Security Council the final conclusions of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Eritrea along its earlier 483-page comprehensive report, and follow up reports of the UN Monitoring Group on Eritrea and Somalia. Another worthy addition to the long list of new research papers and recent publications on Eritrea was  Martin Plaut’s Understanding Eritrea, a paperback published in October 2016 under the aptly chosen subtitle: ‘Inside Africa’s Most Repressive State’.
Martin Plaut and his new book on Eritrea
Earlier this year, journalist/researcher Martin Plaut mentioned to me that he was writing a book on Eritrea, adding:  “it can prove to be difficult to  write on a subject with so many experts.”  For sure he was kidding.  Himself one of the veteran Eritrea observers from his BBC days in the 1980s and till now; producer of authoritative publications on African affairs and current Horn of Africa and Southern Africa researcher for the Commonwealth Institute, Plaut has  again come out with a valuable reading material for all those interested to better understand Eritrea and its unending woes. (And no wonder that he one of those in the watch-list of the repressive regime in Asmara,  whose paid agents vainly try to silence him and his likes through ‘threats’ and name calling.)
The book makes a sweeping coverage of history – not actually to tell the country’s history, but to give a sufficient picture as to why Eritrea’s problems linger and why they are what they are. Also through a careful screening, he narrates and assesses events of critical importance in Eritrea’s sad post-liberation decades. In addition to squeezing out every bit of indispensable facts from the voluminous UN Inquiry Commission and Monitoring Group reports – facts that might have been  overlooked even by our most avid readers in the opposition camp – Plaut also surprises many a reader by putting more light on information not fully known to the ‘experts’ on the subject. And all this in a small space of not more than 250 pages!
Nowadays, if one mentions the name Eritrea, one can hardly avoid thinking of :
  • The thorny relations Eritrea has with its neighbours, especially with Ethiopia;
  • Eritrea’s dangerous fall to the worst form of dictatorship in Africa;
  • The hemorrhage of its population;
  •  Their suffering in diaspora;
  • The fragmentation of the supposed forces of change, and
  • Prospects for the future.
The book does fairly adequately address these hot issues of importance to Eritrea and all concerned about the plight of its people. Plaut’s findings on the regime’s illicit economic activities and deals are also of particular importance. He does not mention  any production of unwanted items by the regime after liberation although, according to the book, the front that Isaias Afeworki led to victory is said to have cultivated marijuana in areas under its control.

Closed and Secretive
In its early pages, the book prepares the reader to expect Eritreans to be an outcome of a difficult history carrying traces of so many rulers, and a complex identity of diverse groups speaking nine languages, belonging to two major religions, living in different environments and with co-ethnics separated by artificial colonial boundaries.  It also asserts that peoples of the region were culturally inclined  “to be closed and secretive” and that the left-wing ideologies of the 20th century did contribute in  hardening further these traits in their elites. The author finds leaderships in the region to be  “veiled and obscure” –  culturally and partly intentionally. Therefore, even genuine differences could not be resolved through open discussions because of the “cult of confidentiality” that existed in the liberation movements.
The new Eritrean regime thus remained obscure by keeping everything secret. Even Eritrea’s population was wanted to remain an unknown figure. The last population census was made in 1931. According to Plaut, the population estimates for Eritrea today range from 3.2m to 6.5m, and the regime in Asmara can chose any figure when it wants to project fictitious percentiles on growth in education, health services, the economy etc.
Quarrels with Neighbours
The Eritrean regime’s numerous quarrels with neighbours, in particular the one with Ethiopia, are given sufficient space and insightful analysis. Regarding relations with Ethiopia, the author considers the question of the border to have been of critical importance although the Eritrean head of state, Isaias,  at first gave it little attention.
To his credit, Haile Mengerios, at that time regime representative in Addis Ababa, is said to have raised the border question early in 1992 but Isaias “rebuffed” him. The book also mentions that  even Yemane Ghebreab (monkey), then a novice in official diplomacy, blamed Haile Menkerios of being “obsessed with the border issue.”
One clear omission regarding the border issue is the book’s  failure to mention how much other Eritreans were very seriously concerned about that problem starting in the latter part of the 1970s when disagreements led to serious armed clashes between the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) and the Tigrai People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The author observes serious absence of checks and balances and unwillingness to compromise both in Eritrea and Ethiopia, and as such, when relationship between two individuals break down, there remain “no official structures to fall back upon.”  He also hints at the ominous probability – that no one can be sure that “full-scale war will not resume” anytime in the future.
A Detrimental Email
There have been heated pro and con arguments about the failure of the concerned   states (especially Ethiopia) to accept the “final and binding” decision of the  arbitration Tribunal on the border problem with its epicenter at Badme. After reading this book, I am inclined to conclude that it was a misleading email by an OAU staff member and  observer at the Tribunal that hugely contributed in further complicating the possible acceptance of the arbitration decision.
The Tribunal gave only coordinates on the map without mentioning Badime and its location. When given the first copy of the decision, the OAU observer at the Tribunal wrongly interpreted the coordinates and emailed to his headquarters saying that Badime was given to Ethiopia.
The book informs that it was Martin Plaut of the BBC  himself who was the first to correctly read the map and to report that the OAU email was based on wrong interpretation. Plaut’s interpretation was backed by experts reached by BBC. At that time, Ethiopia was already celebrating victory and its foreign minister said all what “a victor” is expected to say. When the BBC report was broadcast, Ethiopia sent to London its minister of Information to ask the BBC to withdraw  its report,  but to no avail.
As we all know, it is now nearly 15 years since the boundary decision was passed  and the crucial matter left unaddressed by all concerned.
The ‘Clever, Manipulative’ Isaias
No present-day writer can spare Isaias the blame of being the topmost culprit in independent Eritrea’s disastrous failure from becoming what it was expected to be at the end of that long-stretched struggle. Martin Plaut could not be an exception. He describes Isaias not only as “clever and manipulative” but also as one whose style of rule is “arbitrary, personal and ruthlessly repressive”. This  “towering figure who led his people to independence” was not ashamed to become the  “dictator “who now holds them in servitude”. Yet, to Plaut’s judgment, “his colleagues in the EPLF leadership must [also] take their share for the responsibility for the country’s predicament.”

Flight and its Consequences
After discussing the build up towards dictatorship and the economic failures in most sectors that rendered the country inhabitable, the book thoughtfully narrates the risks faced by those Eritreans, mostly young,  who take the fatal decision to  say bye-bye to home. To be appreciated most is Plaut’s ability to select and provide most essential facts that can be kept at one’s finger-tips about what happened and in what numbers to Eritrean victims of human traffickers in the Sinai, the Sudan, the Libyan desert, the Mediterranean Sea and others parts of the globe. The human traffickers included Eritrean top officials working collaboration with Sudanese counterparts in the dirty business.
The Diaspora
Also given adequate coverage are diaspora Eritreans – both the old and new caseloads, and how much they contributed to the coffers of the regime as they did in liberation struggle days.  However, the book reassures that “the days of [Eritrean diaspora’s] unequivocal support for the regime are over”.  However, the long-arm’ of the regime is still reaching many of the diaspora communities, including those 200,000 Eritrean-Americans in today’s Trumpland, who, by the way, were ordered to vote for this supposed new buddy of the dictatorial clique in Asmara. (And it is good to remember that Eritrea’s population was estimated at little less than 200,000 – equal to those Eritreans presently in America – when it was named ‘Italian colony of Eritrea’ in January 1890).
Naturally, the book discusses the problems in the diaspora opposition and concludes that old rifts of the liberation struggle years are still “standing on the way” of the much needed wider unity.  In the concluding parts of the book, Martin Plaut opines a number of possible scenarios for change in Eritrea, the most optimistic of which is an internal take-over by the army.
(This piece of writing was  initially aimed to be a much shorter thank you note to the author for making the effort to make Eritrea and its current situation better understood by readers.)
Thank you, Martin Plaut. Shukren, Yekeniyelna!!
With warm greetings of the Holiday Season. source https://martinplaut.wordpress.com/2016/12/20/understanding-eritrea-a-review/




Monday 19 December 2016

Amid Saudi-Egyptian strained relations, King Salman’s adviser reportedly visited Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Informed media sources said that Ahmed Al-Khatib, the adviser of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, has paid a visit to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam within the framework of his current presence in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, to find out the possibility of renewable energy generation.

The Ethiopian source, that accompanied the Saudi official to the dam, said that Al-Khatib, who arrived in Addis Ababa Friday, visited the dam on the same day, and was received by the project manager Semegnew Bekele.
The visit agenda of Al-Khatib and his accompanying delegation was undeclared, especially concerning the Renaissance Dam, which was not also mentioned by the Saudi Press Agency.
According to the official Ethiopian television, the adviser to the Saudi monarch, met yesterday, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.
The Ethiopian TV pointed out that during the meeting, it was agreed to form a joint committee for cooperation between the two countries in the field of energy.
For his part, Desalegn called Saudi Arabia to support the project financially and to invest in Ethiopia, according to the Ethiopian television itself.
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia emphasized his country’s desire to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in the fields of energy, roads, electricity, agriculture, as well as cooperation in the field of tourism.
For his part, Al-Khatib said that Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia said they had enormous potentials that will enable the two countries to work together for promoting and strengthening their economic and diplomatic ties.
Al-Khatib also held consultations with the Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs and pointed out that Saudi investors desire to work in Ethiopia in various investment fields.
Al-Khatib’s visit to Ethiopia is the second by Saudi officials within days, where Saudi Minister of Agriculture Abdul Rahman bin Abdul Mohsen al-Fadhli visited Ethiopia last week.
In 1948 diplomatic relations between the two countries began at the ChargĂ© d’affaires level, and in 1994, diplomatic representation was upgraded to the rank of ambassador.

Saudi-Egyptian relations strained

Saudi Arabia was a major supporter of the military-backed regime in Egypt following the 2013 coup against Mohamed Morsi, the country’s first freely elected president, and has channeled billions of dollars in support of Egypt’s economy. readmore

Saudi Arabia and the GCC are Expanding To Eritrea. Geopolitical Implications for Ethiopia

America's War in the Horn of  Africa:  “Drone Alley” – a Harbinger of Western Power across the African Continent
Recent media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have contracted Eritrea’s government for assistance in the War on Yemen, using the East African state as a transit and logistics base for their operations, as well as 400 of its troops for cannon fodder in Aden.
Add to it the Qatari soldiers that have already been present on the ground for a few years to “mediate” the border dispute with Djibouti, and the most important members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have unexpectedly converged in what many might think to be among one of the most unlikeliest of places. While it may have been difficult to foresee this happening, in hindsight it actually makes quite a lot of sense, and contrary to the conventional assessment that this is about Yemen, the argument can be made that it’s also just as much about Ethiopia as well. Unbeknownst to many, Qatar is the “ox driving the cart” in this case, and whether they like it or not, the rest of the GCC states will be reluctantly forced to follow its destabilizing lead if Doha decides to throw Ethiopia into chaos.
The research expands on the briefing first laid out by South Front and should be seen as a continuation of their original work. It begins by setting the context for what’s been going on along the Horn of Africa lately and how the GCC’s military advances fit into the larger context of recent history. The piece then investigates the levers of influence for how Qatar could destabilize Ethiopia as well as its radical ideological motivations for doing so. Finally, the article concludes with a scenario study of how Qatar could engineer an Unconventional War to bring down Africa’s next up-and-coming power readmore