Thursday 31 December 2009

Explaining Violence in Somalia

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Conflict in Somalia: Drivers and Dynamics

The report has not undergone review accorded to official World Bank publications. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data involved in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on the map do not imply any judgment on part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
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Oil and Violence in Sudan

There can be little question that access to and control of petroleum wealth plays a
critical role in sustaining and escalating the Sudanese civil war. Arguably, the degree
of stability and control enjoyed by the government in the North is at least partially a
function of the southern resources it controls3.
This case study urges the integration of the links between resource extraction and
community insecurity in corporate management decisions, and calls for greater
international political will in preventing the sale of valuable commodities – not only oil,
but also timber, diamonds, gold and other minerals from exacerbating conflict and
human suffering.
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Sudan: conflict in Darfur

This paper examines the background to the conflict, and looks at the international response to the humanitarian crisis. Maps of Sudan and Darfur are included as appendices. The recent progress made in resolving the decades-long Sudanese civil war between the north and south is the subject of a separate Standard Note, SN/IA/2155, Sudan.
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Economic Issues in Sudan’s North-South Peace Process

This case study on Sudan is a reminder that economic factors do not necessarily need to be directly responsible for higher levels of violence to be able to contribute to the de-escalation of conflict and the initiation of a peace process. In Sudan, the presence of oil has often been simply considered a compounding factor to the main drivers of violence. But after nearly four decades of armed conflict, the prospect of oil revenues has changed the incentive structure for violence and contributed to the development of tactically informed choices favouring negotiation over the continuation of conflict. In his analysis, Achim Wennmann shows that identifying the incentive structures for violence among belligerents may be an important conceptual tool to assist mediators in making decisions as to when to engage armed groups and how to assess their possible attitudes towards a peace process.
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Wednesday 30 December 2009

Sudan: Towards an incomple peace

With the signing on 25 September 2003 of a framework agreement on security arrangements, the Sudanese government and the insurgent Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) are closer to peace than at any time in the past twenty
years. However, considerable hurdles remain before any final deal is signed, and a separate, intensifying war in the west already threatens to undermine it. As
the parties press forward with the last phases of negotiation, the international community’s engagement should intensify in support of the final deal, in preparation for helping with implementation if successful, and in ensuring coordination between
the main peace process and the conflict in the west.
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Grievances and the Roots of Insurgencies: Southern Sudan and Darfur

The importance of economic agendas for civil war formation has attracted attention in some academic circles and led to economic analysis of the causes of civil wars. As a result, the Collier-Hoeffler framework has emerged in the literature that considers rebel economic opportunity to be the main factor causing civil conflict. Although it has been applied to explain conflicts in Africa, the Collier-Hoeffler framework does not provide sufficient tools to analyse the underlying conditions that have led to the major insurgencies in Sudan. This paper argues that it is not principally rebel economic opportunity behind the two southern rebellions and the insurgency in Darfur, but rather socio-economic grievances derived from culturally and regionally imposed political marginalisation, which require broader analysis. This article conducts a historical analysis of the origins of conflict in Southern Sudan and Darfur, which permits a more comprehensive understanding of the emergence of conflict than an analysis based on rebel economic agendas alone.
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Elections in Sudan 2008/9: A Complex Challenge in Need of Urgent Donor Attention

The signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on 9 January 2005 marked the formal conclusion of the civil war between the Sudanese Government (based in Khartoum) and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). According to the CPA, in 2011, after a six-year Interim Period following the peace agreement, “there shall be an internationally monitored referendum … for the people of South Sudan to confirm the unity of the Sudan by voting to adopt the system of government established under the Peace Agreement; or to vote for secession” (Ch. I, Para 2.5).
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NDA Memorandum to US government delegation peace and democracy in Sudan

The Sudan had a viable democratic system whose government was on the verge
of reaching a peace agreement in 1989. To abort that agreement, a minority
party, the National Islamic Front, staged a military coup d'etat and established an
oppressive dictatorship imposing its partisan program on the majority of the
peoples of the Sudan claiming diviue suction for its program. The NIF regime
branded the majority Moslem citizens of Sudan as heretical, and the Christian
and other denominations of the Sudan as infidels who should be converted, if
necessary, by force. The regune applied the same judgements to Sudan's
neighbouring coutthies. They claimed they had a divine mission to apply their
W brand of Islam ark the peoples of the Sudan, their neighbours, and beyond. Their
means to realise those aims are a Jihad policy which justified them to suppress
internal opposition, wage holy war ngainst armed resistance, and apply
expansionist and terrorist policies regionally and internationally.
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Civil Society, Democracy and Development: International Experiences and the Ethiopian Context International Conference

There are different definitions to the term civil society but what is unique in most definitions is that there is consensus on the fact that civil society activities are driven to benefit citizens by groups, individuals and associations. More often than not the term Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) is erroneously taken to mean civil society. Civil society involves a broad range of civic elements including trade unions, faith-based organisations, community-based organisations and associations, social movements and networks and people who participate in public discourses and activities. Over the last decade or so there has been a profound increase in the number of civic organisations with concomitant increases in their capacity, scope of influence, public profile and audiences. This proliferation of civic networks has been facilitated by the same factors that have enhanced globalisation including technological advancements and socio-cultural, economic and political integration. These processes in this era of globalisation have not been devoid of challenges for coalition building for civil society but they have also been accompanied by new opportunities.

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Indigenous systems of conflict resolution in Oromia, Ethiopia

This paper describes the role of the Gadaa system, a uniquely democratic political and social institution of the Oromo people in Ethiopia, in the utilization of important resources such as water, as well as its contribution in conflict resolution among individuals and communities. It discusses ways to overcome the difference between customary and statutory approaches in conflict resolution. A synthesis of customary and statutory system of conflict resolution may facilitate a better understanding that will lead to improved management of resources, which are predominant variables for the socio-economic development of the country. It suggests that top-down imposition and enforcement of statutory laws that replace customary laws should be avoided. Instead, mechanisms should be sought to learn from the Lubas, elders who are knowledgeable in the Gadaa system, about the customary mechanisms of conflict resolution so as to
integrate them in enacting or implementing statutory laws.
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US Policy and democracy in Africa

With a population of sixty-seven million, Ethiopia is the second largest nation in Sub-
Sahara Africa. It is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious society. Christianity adopted
since the third century of the Christian era and Islam as of the sixth century. Its
geopolitical sphere spans over East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Middle and
Near East. It holds a special place in the African context as a symbol of independence
and for its active role in the liberation of the continent from colonial rule. It is the seat of the African Union, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and many other
International Organizations. Ethiopia was a member of the former League of Nations
and later a founding member of the United Nations, the World Bank and IMF and
similar organs. Ethiopian and US relations were established in 1902, centenary of
which was celebrated recently in both countries.
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Democratic governance and political leadership in Africa

Current Situation in Africa: Every time one reads about Africa there is always a sense of ennui especially when the state of political instability, economic and social hopelessness seems to be a permanent feature of the continent. One would have wanted to say that this chaos characteristic of Africa is limited to a few isolated places. But it is not. From the Maghreb to West Africa and from Central Africa to East and Southern Africa, the continent suffers from fissiparous political tendencies leading to internal implosion and occasionally to full scale civil wars in which Africa’s neighbours and outsiders are directly or indirectly involved.
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US Policy in the Horn of Africa under the Obama Administration.

The Horn of Africa has recently seen renewed interest from several competing global economic powers including China, Russia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Brazil. Part of these nations’ attraction to the region seems to be the region’s richness in oil, minerals, overseas farmlands, its being an ideal arms deal and piracy destination, as well as the strategic importance of the region for military purposes. For these reasons, the Obama Administration has every responsibility to synchronize US policy and interests in the region with democratization and stability.


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Ethnic conflict in the Horn of Africa

This paper looks at the formation of ethnicity and ethnic conflict in the Horn
of Africa with particular attention to the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Firstly, conflict in the Horn of Africa at large is mapped out. Ethnic and political
groups within Ethiopia and Eritrea are looked at respectively so as to analyse
the outbreak of war in the two countries. The extent of external role players'
involvement in this conflict is examined. Finally the essay also attempts to assess
the social and economic consequences of the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

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Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa

U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea
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The Horn of Africa: Background, Scope And Regional Initiatives

The Horn of Africa is one of the most important and strategic areas of Africa and the global economy. It is a bridge between Africa and the Middle East, as well as a gateway to the oilfields of the Persian Gulf. It is a culturally and historically rich region of the world with great natural resource potential. Specifically, the Region is endowed with rivers, lakes, forests, livestock, and high agricultural potential including untapped potential of petroleum, gold, salt, hydro-power and natural gas.
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For a democratic Horn of Africa in the new millennium

In these twilight days of the second millennium, the four countries that constitute the Horn � Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea � are in the grip of political, economic and cultural crises that could spell even more disasters in the New Millennium.
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Opinion: How to stop Africa's democratic backsliding

Fifty years after the first wave of independence, most of Africa is still waiting to benefit from democracy. Rulers extending their terms in office certainly aren't helping matters any.
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Tuesday 29 December 2009

The Dynamics of Conflict in the Tri-Border Region of the Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic

The analysis in this study and the information
contained herein are based on the many years of
experience of the author working as a country
expert on the Sudan for various organisations.
In this context he repeatedly travelled to various
regions of the country over the period 2002-2006,
including the south, Darfur and the border region
with Eritrea.
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Wednesday 16 December 2009

Mission: Peace in the Horn of Africa

Sponsored by African News Journal, Eritrean Forum in Minnesota, and organized by Confederation of the Somali Community, Eritrean Forum and Gambella Relief Organization, The Horn of Africa Peace Forum examined pathways to peace in the Horn of Africa region and explored ways of empowering the grass roots and civil society so that a lasting peace can be based on understanding and trust.

The Forum that won many nicknames before it even began left participants with hope. It has been called an historic conference, never done before. Even coordinators won nicknames: risk takers, visionaries, concerned citizens, dreamers and so on. What matters the most, after all, for organizers and the attendees was accomplishing one objective: bringing these communities together to talk about their common future.
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Saturday 12 December 2009

Africa & democracy: all articles

From Angola to Somalia, Rwanda to Zimbabwe, conflict and poverty scar Africa. But Africans everywhere are investing huge energies in search of democratic change and social betterment. openDemocracy writers examine the new worlds of an old continent.
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Thursday 3 December 2009

Darfur: Drought or Islamism?

Ecowar blog

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DARFUR CONFLICT: ITS HISTORY, NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT

Increased access to weapons from southern Sudan, Chad, Libya, and Eritrea aggravated the inter-tribal conflict with the emergence of tribal militias. Some tribes believe that the government was not able to defend them against other tribes and armed criminal gangs who have more sophisticated weapons, which led several nomadic tribes to form their own defence groups. As a result the region became an open arms
market attracting arms dealers to smuggle in all kinds of weapons such as small arms, heavy and light artillery, RPG rocker launchers, and including armoured vehicles. Between 1983-87 fighting broke out between Fur, Zaghawa and Ma’alihyah communities which resulted in 5,000 deaths, tens of thousands of displaced people and the destruction of 40,000 homes. The conflict was mediated and settled by
government and local tribal leaders. In 1990 the southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army inspired an insurgency led by Daud Bolad from the Fur tribe. The insurgency was defeated in few months. In 1996 the Rezeigat and Zagawa tribes came into
armed conflict. In 1997-99 there was fighting between Massaleit
and some Arab tribes

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Indigenous Systems of Conflict Resolution in Oromia, Ethiopia

This chapter describes the role of the gadaa system, an institution developed for guiding the social, political, economic and religious life of the Oromo people in Ethiopia and for managing resources such as water, as well as its contribution in conflict resolution among individuals and communities. It discusses ways to overcome the difference between customary and statutory approaches in conflict resolution. A synthesis of customary and statutory systems of conflict resolution may facilitate a better understanding that will lead to improved management of resources, which are predominant variables for the socio-economic development of the country. It
suggests that top-down imposition and enforcement of statutory laws that replace customary laws should be avoided. Instead, mechanisms should be sought to learn from the Lubas, elders who are knowledgeable in the gadaa system, about the customary mechanisms of conflict resolution so as to integrate them into the enactment or implementation of statutory laws
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Drought War, and the Politics of Famine in Ethiopia and Eritrea

During almost two decades, beginning in the early 1970s, the Horn of Africa was racked by the ravages of hunger and war. Natural disasters are not new to the region, which historically could count on at least seven major droughts each century, but in the current era they have been increasing, in part due to massive deforestation and the changing pattern of weather.1 It is estimated that in Ethiopia alone, because of soil erosion and deforestation, 30,000 million tons of top-soil
are lost each year.2 A second important factor affecting the seventy of famine has been the dramatic escalation in the level and intensity of civil conflict, nowhere more evident than in Ethiopia. A devastating drought and associated famine contributed greatly to the demise of the imperial régime of H aile Selassie in September 1974.3 The fall of the Old Order, and the failure of the new leaders between then and 1991 to develop a plan for the rebuilding of society that was
widely accepted as legitimate, fuelled an internal war in the Ethiopian heartland, and a struggle for national liberation in the former Italian colony of Eritrea. The latter conflict lasted for over three decades; and during the 1980s, its scale, scope, and intensity increased markedly, culminating in victory for the Eritrea n People's Liberation Front (E.P.L.F.) in April 1991. Concurrently the internal opponents of Ethiopia's revolutionary régime became better armed and organised,
and under the leadership of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (E.P.R.D.F.) they were able to depose President Mengis tu Haile Mariam even as the rebels were claiming victory in Eritrea. Why were those living in the rural areas not able to use traditional techniques of survival to mitigate the ill effects of drought, and avoid
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Grassroots Conflict Assessment Of the Somali Region, Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s Somali Region is undergoing a gradual but important transition that has multiple implications concerning violent grassroots conflict (defined, in this context, as conflict largely driven by local factors, as opposed to macro-political factors). Home to more than four million people, the vast majority of whom are ethnically Somali and Somali-speaking, the region’s inhabitants are undergoing a fundamental shift in their livelihoods, started about two decades
ago, that affects many facets of life. This shift is driven by multiple factors and results in a measured move away from the traditional nomadic pastoralist way of life towards a foundation of agro-pastoralist activities and sedentary farming. There are many implications of this shift at multiple levels of society; this report focuses on the implications for community-based conflict and argues that the shift brings with it new drivers of conflict in addition to conventional drivers. Aggravating the situation is the recent drought professed by some to be the worst in the region’s history.
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Ethiopia: government recognition of conflict IDPs crucial to addressing their plight

Internal displacement due to conflict occurs in different parts of Ethiopia. It is caused mainly by ethnic tensions exacerbated by the government’s regionalisation policy
along ethnic lines, tight political control from the centre, and widespread resource
shortages in a chronically food-insecure country. In the absence of a coherent ap-
proach to internally displaced persons (IDPs), estimates of displacement vary from
100,000 to 280,000, including some 60,000 drought IDPs. This report considers the
displacement situations in the four regions of Tigray, Somali, Oromiya and Gambella.
Drought displacement and the national resettlement scheme are mentioned as well.
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CROSS-CULTURAL CONFLICT

Conflict is competition by groups or individuals over incompatible goals, scarce resources, or the sources of power needed to acquire them. This competition is also determined by individuals’ perceptions of goals, resources, and power, and such perceptions may differ greatly among individuals. One determinant of perception is culture, the socially inherited, shared and learned ways of living possessed by individuals in virtue of their membership in social groups. Conflict that occurs across cultural boundaries thus is also occurring across cognitive and perceptual boundaries, and is especially susceptible to problems of intercultural miscommunication and misunderstanding. These problems exacerbate the conflict, no matter what the root causes of it—including strictly material interests—may be. In this sense culture is an important factor in many sorts of conflicts that at first may appear to be exclusively about material resources or negotiable interests.
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Sudan: Root Causes of the Wars in South Sudan, Darfur And the Afro-Arab Borderlands

The problems that the Borderlands raise, being that area of Africa stretching from Sudan on the Red Sea to Mauritania on the Atlantic Ocean, date back thousands of years. That area provides a sharper, historically based, holistic definition of the African personality than that hitherto offered by the Black consciousness movements in the Americas and southern Africa.
The last population census conducted in Sudan was in 1983. Population figures in Sudan, the largest country in Africa, and especially southern Sudan, are the subject of continual dispute. Sudan’s total population was estimated to be close to 20 million people, with 80-85 percent settled in rural areas. While 39 percent of Sudan’s population considers itself as ‘Arab’, the ruling elite in Khartoum present Sudan as an ‘Arab’ country, which most international bodies and scholars accept. In Sudan, mainly around Khartoum, exists a minority group of mixed race Black people who do not consider themselves Africans and who participate in the oppression and the enslavement of the majority African population. Clearly what is at stake here is not a matter of colour, but a question of culture. What the Borderlands teach us is that the African personality is primarily defined culturally. It is not race based.
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On the Theory of Ethnic Conflict

In many countries and many periods a person’s ethnic identity has profound consequences for his or her physical safety, political status, and economic prospects. Violent confrontation along ethnic lines is the most apparent form of ethnic conflict, and recently has claimed lives in such diverse places as the Balkans, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, Indonesia, the Middle East, Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, and several other countries. Less news-making, but even more widespread, is nonviolent ethnic conflict, whereby ethnic cleavages form the basis for political competition and/or economic exploitation. In Kenya, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Belgium, and countless other countries rent seeking on behalf of one’s ethnic group crowds out productive activities, and the threat of violence discourages investments in human and physical capital
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The causesof conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa Framework

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The causesof conflictin Sub-Saharan Africa Framework

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The causesof conflictin Sub-Saharan Africa Framework

Poverty and Conflict in Africa: Explaining a Complex Relationship

With the end of the Cold War, poverty and conflict have become the biggest challenges to sustainable development. Even though debatable, poverty is continuously cited as one of the principal factors responsible for instability in many parts of Africa. For example, West Africa contains 11 of the world’s 25 poorest countries and is currently one of the unstable regions of the world. In fact, at a recent United States Institute of Peace workshop on “Responding to War and State Collapse in West Africa”, participants reached a consensus (contrary to popular belief) that poverty and the lack of economic opportunity were more important factors than Charles Taylor and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in the continuing instability that afflicts the entire region. According to the 2003 UN Human Development Report, “The new century opened with an unprecedented declaration of solidarity and determination to rid the world of poverty. In 2000 the UN Millennium Declaration, adopted at the largest-ever gathering of heads of state, committed countries – rich and poor – doing all they can to eradicate poverty, promote human dignity and equality and achieve peace, democracy and environmental sustainability.” Three years later, poverty and conflict are on the rise, particularly in Africa. Indeed, for most countries in Africa, the last few years have been times of despair and the 2003 Human Development Ranking is a testimony – the 25 poorest countries in the world, at the bottom of the ranking, are from Africa.
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Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict?

This article outlines a human rights framework for analyzing violent internal
conflict, by “translating” social-scientific findings about conflict risk factors into
human rights language. Discrimination and violations of social and economic
rights appear to function as underlying causes, creating the deep grievances and
group identities that may, under some circumstances, motivate collective
violence. Violations of civil and political rights, by contrast, are more clearly
identifiable as direct triggers. Abuse of personal integrity is associated with
conflict escalation, with intermediately repressive regimes most at risk. Denial of
political participation rights is associated with internal conflict insofar that full
democracies experience less conflict, but democratization itself is dangerous,
because regime transition is also a major risk factor.
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Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict?

This article outlines a human rights framework for analyzing violent internal
conflict, by “translating” social-scientific findings about conflict risk factors into
human rights language. Discrimination and violations of social and economic
rights appear to function as underlying causes, creating the deep grievances and
group identities that may, under some circumstances, motivate collective
violence. Violations of civil and political rights, by contrast, are more clearly
identifiable as direct triggers. Abuse of personal integrity is associated with
conflict escalation, with intermediately repressive regimes most at risk. Denial of
political participation rights is associated with internal conflict insofar that full
democracies experience less conflict, but democratization itself is dangerous,
because regime transition is also a major risk factor.
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The causes of conflict in Africa

Summary

Has dramatically increased in level and scale throughout the 1990s. In January 2000 over half of African countries were affected.

Is caused by inequality, economic decline, state collapse and history.

Has changed in nature; wars are now predominantly regional.

Has increasingly affected non-combatants over the past decade as a result of increasing factional fighting and violent action against the civilian population.

Has caused as many deaths each year as are caused by epidemic diseases, and has uprooted millions of people.

Is constraining economic growth on the continent as a whole. Its economic impact crosses state borders.

Has resulted in a marked reduction in food production and serious losses of infrastructure.

Must be tackled because of the human suffering and also because of the impact on global security and the environment.

Requires a stronger and more focused international effort encompassing conflict prevention, reduction, resolution and peace building, in order to respond effectively and break the conflict cycle.
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The Root Causes of Conflict: Some Conclusions by by Frances Stewart

This paper analyses the ‘root’ causes of complex humanitarian emergencies (CHEs) on the basis of studies conducted in a UNU/WIDER project on social and economic causes of CHEs; and identifies policies that appear relevant to the prevention of conflict. The paper regards horizontal inequality (i.e. inequality among groups, in contrast to vertical inequality which measures inequality among individuals) as the fundamental source of organised conflict. Such horizontal inequality may have political, economic or social dimensions. The case studies indicate that CHEs occur where group identity coincides with horizontal inequality that is consistent, and often widening, over a number of dimensions. Preventative policies need to be addressed towards correcting horizontal inequality along the relevant dimensions. Where conflicts are already underway, it is also necessary to introduce policies
to change the private incentives of those who carry it out towards alternative peaceful occupations. Preventative policies thus require inclusive government, politically, economically and socially. Such policies do not form part of the current political or economic conditionality exercised by the international community, and may sometimes contradict this conditionality
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Trends and Causes of Armed Conflict

From the start of 1990 to the end of 1999 there were 118 armed conflicts world wide,
involving 80 states and two para-state regions and resulting in the death of approximately six million people. If we seek to prevent conflict from escalating into armed warfare, or, failing that, to at least achieve an end to fighting as soon as possible, and if we want to maximise the opportunity for avoiding the return of the war after apparent settlement, we must first be sure that we properly understand armed conflicts and their causes.
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Livelihood Conflicts: Linking poverty and environment as causes of conflict

Poverty increasingly is caused by environmental scarcities of arable land and water,
resulting in loss of livelihoods. A common denominator for causes of conflict in
many recent internal wars is the loss of livelihoods resulting in young men being
unable to reach the positions in life earlier generations of men could expect. Policy
attempts to break the vicious path to conflict need to address both poverty and environmental issues. Reconstruction of exhausted environmental resources will work
towards both these ends.
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Lack of citizenship rights a major cause of conflict in Africa

(Kampala, Uganda, 21 October 2009)—The lack of citizenship rights generates conflict and undermines democracy in many countries in Africa, according to two new studies by the Open Society Institute. The reports, the culmination of years of research, analyze citizenship laws from all 53 countries in Africa.
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Wednesday 2 December 2009

Conflict early warning response mechanisms

Conflict early warning and response’ (EWR) was conceived as a means of preventing violent conflict in order to protect people’s life. Broadly two types of mechanisms can be distinguished: quantitative and qualitative models. The most explicit response mechanism exists with regard to humanitarian emergencies at the UN level; however the EWR mechanism is far from being efficient since the UN is a bureaucratic organisation with a ‘silo’ mentality among the different agencies and departments, and the UN Security Council is a highly politicised body. At the same time, only in recent years have regional organisationsbeen charged with responding to crises and only now are they beginning to establish instruments (organs of peace and security) with a capacity to respond.
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Horn of Africa: Peace Agreement

This posting also contains a selection of links with updates and background on the conflict.
Source Africa Policy E-Journal
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Tuesday 24 November 2009

Ethiopia / Eritrea UN Documents

Revised on 14 August 2008
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Ethiopia and Eritrea: Allergic to Persuasion by Sally Healy and Martin Plaut

This briefing paper charts the undermining of the Algiers Agreement by its
two signatories. It examines the differing approaches of Ethiopia and Eritrea to
diplomacy and the challenges that this poses for the international community –
the United Nations, the United States, the European Union (EU) and the African
Union (AU) – in trying to achieve lasting peace between these two new and
highly antagonistic neighbours.
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ERITREA (Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme, 2002-…)

Initially, the government of Eritrea planned a demobilisation period of a year or a year and a half, and programmes of reintegration for five years. A pilot project designed for 65,000-70,000 participants was planned for November 2001 after the NCDRP was created earlier that year.
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'Border Conflict' - 1998- 2000 and its Psychological Impact on the Youth by Amanuel Mehreteab

After 30 years of armed struggle for independence, Eritrea enjoyed only seven years of peace and stability before another war with neighboring Ethiopia resumed in May 1998. In this short peaceful interval, tremendous efforts were made to establish and develop the basic institutions of the new state that is, rebuilding the infrastructure and rehabilitating the social and economic basses.
Unfortunately, with the return of a war these achievements had been to a large extent reversed. The reversal of positive development in general applies to all sectors but has taxed the youth highly especially the youth who were mobilized/remobilized and armed. Currently more than 230,000 - 250,000 soldiers are under arms out of which the majorities are youngsters. Present Eritrea offers a rare opportunity to probe and examine the two demobilization and reintegration exercises occurring within a decade and its social and economic impact in the same country but in very different political context.
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Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Program by By Amanuel Mehreteab

The demobilization and reintegration of ex-combatants represent a
great challenge for Rwanda. Since it constitutes an integral part of the overall
transformation from a war-torn to a reconstructed country, this process is shaped
by both the opportunities and constrains that is currently unfolding in present-day
Rwanda. The RDRP Stage II (2001-2005) targeted to demobilize 20,000 soldiers from
the national army (RDF) and about 25,000 members of armed groups (AG)
including 2,500 child soldiers over a period of three years from neighboring
countries particularly from Democratic Republic of Congo (RDC).
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Veteran combatants do not fade away: a comparative study on two demobilization in Eritrea

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Veteran combatants do not fade away: a comparative study on two demobilization in Eritrea

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ERITREA : What happened to the Eritrean female freedom-fighters?

n the trenches of DenDen, near the Sahel stronghold of Nacfa, in northern Eritrea, the formidable EPLF fighters who for years had been repelling the attacks of General Mengistu’s Ethiopian infantry and air force, were teenagers in shorts. And between one third and a quarter of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Eritrea” (EPLF) freedom fighters were girls.

The volunteers came from all strata of the Eritrean society, both Christian or Muslim. Most joined the EPLF against the will of their parents and the majority described their background as being “very traditional”.
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“REINTEGRATING RETURNEES AND EX‐FIGHTERS    IN THE PROCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION IN    POST‐CONFLICT ERITREA by AMANUEL MEHRETEAB 

After 30 years of armed struggle Eritrea attained formal independence in 1993. As a result of the war more than 700,000 people had been exiled and 150,000 to 160,000 had joined the fighting forces. 
At independence the EPLF fighting force numbered 95,000. With independence and the return of peace there was an opportunity as well as a need to repatriate the refugees, demobilize the fighters and reintegrate them into the main stream of the society. But by participating in the armed struggle or by fleeing into exile people had developed different values, norms and attitudes, which were not always and necessarily congruent with those of a receiving community. On the other hand they had acquired valuable skills which could become useful inputs for reviving the ‘war‐torn’ country. This thesis will examine the reintegration of returnees by taking Eritrea as a case study and by placing the reintegration 
proess in the context of rehabilitation and reconstruction process
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EVALUATION OF THE DEMOBILISATION AND REINTEGRATION PROGRAMS OF EX-FIGHTERS IN ERITREA by AMANUEL MEHRETEAB

Demobilised ex-fighters in Eritrea face similar problems as other countries do. They have
economic, social, and psychological problems as a result of their demobilisation and
reintegration process to enter into the mainstream of the society. Economically and
socially, they have to adjust to the mores of the society. As demonstrated in the process,
it was highlighted that they have difficulty in accepting their civilian identity, and feel
they have lost the prestige of being a freedom fighter. Five years have elapsed since the
program of demobilisation and reintegration was launched and is a timely endeavour to
put this exercise into perspective so that lessons can be drawn
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Monday 23 November 2009

CIVIL WAR IN SUDAN: The Impact of Ecological Degradation by Mohamed Suliman

Since the firing of the first bullet in 1983, the re-appearance of war between Northern and Southern Sudan has generally been interpreted as a typical ethno-religious conflict deriving from differences between Muslims and Christians, or Arabs and Africans.

While this categorisation had served as a description of the earlier manifestation of the conflict in the 1950s, and still has some bearing on how the war is being conducted and perceived, our opinion is that the nature of the conflict haschanged. Conflicts are processes, not static events, and over the last three decades developments in the Sudan have gradually if consistently changed the nature of the conflict from being a classic ethno-religious conflict to one mainly over resources, with the economic and resource crisis in the North emerging as a driving force in the Sudanese civil war.
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Ecology, Politics and Violent Conflict by Mohamed Suliman

It was the year 1998. The famine in southern Sudan was threatening the lives of more than half a million people, especially in Bahr El Ghazal Province. The famine provoked a serious debate about its causes. Most commentators in the United Kingdom accused the war of being the main culprit. In the House of Commons, a Conservative MP stood up and said that the war in Sudan, and all wars in Africa for that matter, were caused by the political vacuum left behind by colonial powers and wondered if something could be done about that. Clare Short, the Minister for Overseas
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WARFARE IN DARFUR The Desert versus the Oasis Syndrome by By Dr Mohamed Suliman,

The armed conflicts, which have afflicted the Sudan over the last three decades, have usually been interpreted as typical ethnic-tribal and/or religious-cultural conflicts. While these categorisations may have served as plausible descriptions of earlier conflicts, and may still have some bearing on how the conflicts are conducted and perceived today, the reality is that conflicts are historical processes, not static events, and so their causes do change and diversify over time.

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The Borana and Fur Conflicts: Similar Features, Different Outcomes

The relatively tranquil settings of the Jebel Mara massive in northern Darfur in western Sudan and the Boran area in southern Ethiopia were profoundly disrupted during the 1980s by prolonged drought, which had persisted with minor interruptions, since 1967.

In the past, when faced with deteriorating natural conditions, people would move to a nearby virgin area (mobility being way of African life). There were enough empty corridors, then. Now, there are practically none. Climatic variations, large-scale mechanised agriculture for export purposes and urban consumption, as well as large increases in human and livestock populations have all conspired to limit or deny access to new resources. Ultimately, these ecological buffer zones have gradually lost their distinction as areas of refuge and as borders of cooperation among neighbouring peoples.

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ETHNICITY FROM PERCEPTION TO CAUSE OF VIOLENT CONFLICTS: THE CASE OF THE FUR AND NUBA CONFLICTS IN WESTERN SUDAN

Most violent conflicts are over material resources, whether these resources are actual or perceived. With the passage of time, however, ethnic, cultural and religious affiliations seem to undergo transformation from abstract ideological categories into concrete social forces. In a wider sense, they themselves become contestable material social resources and hence possible objects of group strife and violent conflict.

Usually by-products of fresh conflicts, ethnic, cultural and spiritual dichotomies, can invert with the progress of a conflict to become intrinsic causes of that conflict and in the process increase its complexity and reduce the possibility of managing and ultimately resolving and transforming it.
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The Nuba conflict in the Sudan by Dr. Mohamed Suliman

Abstract: Since 1987, a violent conflict between the Nuba people of southern Kordofan and government forces supported by indigenous Arab Baggara has been raging in the Nuba Mountains. The armed conflict has brought great misery to the inhabitants of the mountains, especially the Nuba and has had a severe impact on relations between the Nuba and Baggara, who have shared the mountains in uneasy peace and guarded cooperation for the last 200 years. The government persuaded the Baggara to join its crusade against the Nuba by giving them arms and promising them Nuba lands after a quick victory. The Baggara, intoxicated by military power and greed, rejected all calls for peace with the Nuba. The war continued unabated for years. The Baggara lost some of their traditional lands, many men, and animals. Their trade with the Nuba collapsed. Losses forced the Baggara in several areas to negotiate peace with the Nuba. This chapter attempts to explain the complex web of cooperation and conflict that binds the Nuba and the Baggara. It also documents three peace agreements reached between the two warring groups.

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The Horn of Turbulence: Identifying the Root Causes of Conflict and the Appropriate Instruments for Peace Building as a Precondition for Sustainable

The Horn of Africa has been torn apart by warfare for over thirty years. The propensity for conflict in this region has been the subject of much discussion amongst scholars and policy makers. The research programme represents part of a continuing effort to understand some of the underlying causes and has been undertaken by a multinational team recruited from diverse states of the region, whose governments are periodically locked in antagonism. The making of this work is a telling illustration of the dynamics of conflict itself. Shortly after the project got under way, one of the chosen field sites in Eritrea, became a battlefront in the 1998-2000 Eritrean-Ethiopian border war. Access to the field, to informants and to official sources suddenly became blocked, and the entire project viewed with suspicion.

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Oil and the Civil War in the Sudan

THE CIVIL WAR IN THE SOUTH by by Dr Mohamed Suliman

Since the firing of the first bullet in 1983, the reappearance of the war between northern and southern Sudan has generally been interpreted as a typical ethno-religious conflict emanating from differences between Muslims and Christians, or Arabs and Africans. While this categorisation may have served well as a description of the earlier conflict in the 1950s, and still has some bearing on how the war is being conducted and perceived, our opinion is that the nature of the conflict has changed. Conflicts are processes, not static events. And over the last five decades developments in the Sudan have gradually if consistently changed the nature of the conflict between the North and the South from being a classic ethno-religious conflict to one primarily over resources, with the economic and resource crisis in the North emerging as the driving force in the Sudanese civil war.
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18 Years of Civil War in the Sudan

In 1992, Prof. Spillmann invited me to give a talk here in Zurich about the civil war in the Sudan. Almost 10 years later, he has asked me to do the same again. Unfortunately, most of the problems we explored then are still with us today and many of the issues we discussed at that time are still being discussed now. The war situation is almost identical to that in 1992. The government controls most towns in the South while the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) controls most of the country-side. During the last 9 years, over 1m people perished, and about as many left their homes fleeing the war and famine and huge tracts of land have been devastated. Yet, peace is still as elusive as ever, while the misery is consistently being compounded. Everything has been turbulent and in flux and yet appears to have stayed the same - with the exception of the menacing factor of the growing oil wealth and its implication on duration and intensity of the war

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Politics, Conflict and Conflict Resolution in the Horn of Africa: by Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan. By Dr. Axel Klein, IFAA

In response to the deteriorating political situation across the African continent, the Institute For African Alternatives has sought to keep researchers and professionals working in Africa abreast of developments with an annual review on the State of War and Peace in Africa. In the course of collating this reference work, we began to identify commonalties in the different theatres of conflict, which allowed for the elaboration of general principles and drew us into dialogue with a wide body of research on conflict studies. In the process we found it increasingly valuable to contrast our own experience of several countries in the Horn with the prevailing models in conflict research. In response to the growing influence of cultural determinism and a Malthusian influenced ‘environmentalism’, we set out to first denaturalise the interpretation of African conflict.
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The War in Darfur: The Resource Dimension

Latest Darfur paper: The War in Darfur: the Resource Dimension

Presented by Mohamed Suliman at a conference at the American University in Cairo on the 5th of April 2008

In 1983, at the height of the Sahel drought of 1982/84, skirmishes over land erupted between the farmers of Jebel Marra and the pastoralists of northern Darfur. Bad leadership at local, provincial and central government levels allowed the skirmishes to escalate to an armed conflict. A number of objective and subjective factors, one prominent of which was the closeness of the Libyan/Chadian war, helped in spiralling this deterioration. In 2003, war erupted and still continues in Darfur. In the process, skirmishes over land have become a war about identity; Sudanese of Arab origin are fighting against Sudanese of African origin. This remarkable transformation of a resource conflict into an ethnic war seems to be characteristic of many armed conflicts in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel region. Let a resource conflict endure and escalate and you end up with an identity war!
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Conflict in Darfur

Darfur paper in Arabic by Mohamed Suliman, 2009

في عام 1983، حينما كان جفاف منطقة الساحل الأفريقي (Sahel) لأعوام 1982/1984 في أعلى حالاته، إنفجرت إشتباكات حول الأرض بين مزارعي جبل مرّة وبين الرعاة من شمال دارفور. وقد سمح سوء القيادة على المستوى المحلي وعلى مستوى الحكومة المركزيّة للإشتباكات بالتصاعد وبلوغ مستوى النزاع الدموي المسلّح. وقد ساعد عدد من العوامل الذاتيّة والموضوعيّة، من بينها القرب من الحرب الليبيّة- التشاديّة، من تصعيد هذا التدهور بشكل هائل. وفي عام 2003 إنفجرت الحرب في دارفور ومازالت مستعرة. وخلال ذلك صارت الإشتباكات حول الأرض حرباً حول الهويّة: سودانيّون من أصول عربيّة يحاربون سودانيين من أصول أفريقيّة. ويبدو هذا التحوّل المتميّز للحرب من حرب حول الموارد إلى حرب عرقيّة (إثنيّة) طبيعة ملازمة للعديد من النزاعات الدمويّة في القرن الأفريقي ومنطقة الساحل. والحقيقة هي أنّه إذا تُرك نزاع موارد ليستمر ويتفاقم فلا بد أنه سيبلغ مستوى حرب هويّة!
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The Regime of Action Islam in the Sudan by Mohamed Suliman

Action Islam

The victory of the Iranian revolution in 1979 exerted a tremendous impact on the Islamic world. The argument went around then that if a few dedicated Islamists can topple the mighty regime of the Shah, well- organised and disciplined Islamic movements everywhere else could surely aspire to similar success. Few months after the victory in Tehran, a group of over four hundred armed Islamists from 11 nationalities attacked Mecca and occupied the Ka’aba. That first multi-national armed Islamist insurrection was defeated, actually annihilated. So was the fate of other uprisings in Syria, northern African Muslim countries and even in northern Nigeria. Osama Ben Laden was certainly not the first to lead a multi-national armed Jihadist group!

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Sunday 22 November 2009

Citizenship and Democratization in Ethiopia

Citizenship and Democratization in Ethiopia Prepared for presentation at the American Political Science Association Annual Meetings Sept. 1-4 2005 Washington,
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Democratisation of Africa from the Interreligious Perspective

Africa went through three traumatic experiences. It was enslaved by the
Arabs and later by the West and colonised by the West. Slavery was abolished and
decolonisation began in the late 1950’s with Ghana having celebrated its 50 years of
independence in 2007. South Africa was the last country to be freed from white rule
in 1994. Postcolonial Africa was faced with a mammoth task to democratise itself
(Arnold 2005:xiii).
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Democratisation processes in Africa

Eshetu Chole and Jibrin Ibrahim (eds.)
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Challenges of Nation-Building, and Democratization in Africa

Challenges of nation-building, and democratisation in Africa

The first challenge is in the definition. There is no agreed definition of nation-building. A 2003 study by James Dobbins and others for the RAND Corporation defines nation-building as “the use of armed force in the aftermath of a conflict to underpin an enduring transition to democracy.
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Opposition Parties and Democratisation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Article in the Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 24, 1, Jan. 2006. This article presents a classification of the regimes in Africa followed by a descriptive analysis of opposition parties’ behaviour and analyses the effects of that behaviour on democratisation, participation, competition, legitimacy, and regime survival. It argues that opposition participation in elections and acceptance of election results is conducive to democratic development in the country.
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African Politics: Beyond the Third Wave of Democratisation

About the book

In September 2006 the University of the Western Cape (UWC) hosted the third biennial conference of the South African Political Studies Association. The conference was generously sponsored by the programme on the Dynamics for Building a Better Society of the Vlaamse Interuniversitaire Raad (VLIR). VLIR also provided much appreciated funding for the present publication of papers presented at the conference. This book comprises nine such papers, which were selected through peer review from more than 30 papers submitted to be considered for inclusion in the volume. After peer review, the selected papers were converted into chapters, most sharing in some way or form the themes of democracy and democratisation in Africa, hence the book’s title. The organisers of the conference are especially proud of the fact that many of the chapters were authored by younger scholars in the field. The project has thus provided these scholars with an opportunity to publish their research, and to do so alongside established scholars in the field.
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Mapping the path for democratisation of Africa

Can Africa's history of undemocratic and authoritarian states be overcome? Wafula Okumu says hard work and commitment lie ahead, but that there is cause for optimism.


22 April 2005 - Wafula Okumu
Source: Pambazuka news

The awarding of the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize to Professor Wangari Mathai, has widely been considered as an acknowledgement, in part, of the role the civil society has played in the democratization of Africa. Presently there are at least 12 retired presidents in Africa who had completed their constitutional terms and handed over power peacefully after elections. Last year witnessed elections in Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia in which long-serving presidents were replaced in elections won by candidates from the ruling parties. Read more