Saturday 27 March 2010

Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting new war

The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following
Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally implemented it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering territory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
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Approaching Reciprocity: The border issue as a symptom

Worldwide, there are approximately 100 boundary disputes between countries. Vast areas of land, sea and maritime coasts push countries into quarrel for territorial claims or possessions. Some areas are even claimed by more than two countries. There can be wide divergence between de facto boundaries, whether by right or not, and de jure, rightfully, boundaries. Most countries reinforce sovereignty claims for different reasons: Colonial inherited conflicts, the exploitation of minerals, agricultural usage, geopolitical attractions such as access to waters, and other significant benefits.

Few countries exercised arm conflicts, but soon sought legal resolution. Countries solve their territorial claims bilaterally, or at the international hearings, or through other means of mediations. For example: Germany and Denmark successfully resolved an age-old boarder dispute (1815 – 2001) of 68 kilometres. Russia and the United States of America agreed on fishing claims in the central Bering Sea, and Botswana was rewarded the disputed islands with Namibia.

For clarity, here are some of the on-going disputes which may impress us with their experiences: Russia and Japan have had their modern border dispute since 1945 over the Kurile Islands. They are four small islands along 1200 km. of coast line under Russian administration that have been without a conclusive peace treaty between Japan and Russia. Norway and Russia negotiate on the delimitation of maritime boundaries. China and Japan dispute concerning the Senkaku Islands. India and Pakistan still dispute over Kashmir. Afghanistan - Pakistan on their boarder. The Spanish and Moroccan claims over Ceuta and Melilla. Bolivia – Chile – Peru dispute in the Atacama Desert. Mexico and USA dispute in their boarder lands. Canada disputes with USA and Denmark over maritime boundaries. Cambodia – Laos, Cambodia – Vietnam claim in Ratanakiri Province in Cambodia. Iraq and Turkey dispute in the Northern of Kurdistan region. Bahrain and Qatar dispute over maritime delimitation. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan dispute in the Caspian. Spanish with Britain dispute in Gibraltar for territorial waters. Ireland and Britain dispute over their border. Bulgaria and Greece dispute over their boarder lands. It is possible that some of these disputes may have been currently resolved.
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Friday 26 March 2010

Challenges to Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa

The Most Conflicted Corner of the World


In the post-World War II era, the Horn of Africa has consistently been the most conflicted corner of the world. That is a bold assertion, but hear me out and then tell me if there is another region of the world that has consistently been more conflicted.

Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea recovered from wartime Italian military occupation only to confront soon thereafter a series of internal and inter-state conflicts. In the case of Ethiopia, this included a rebellion in Eritrea province, the violent overthrow of the Haile Selassie government by a military junta followed by an expanded internal war that in 1991 removed the military government that had deposed Haile Selassie. This event coincided with the hard fought independence of Eritrea from Ethiopia.

A bloody border war then broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 1998. Although it ended two years later, it did not resolve the border disagreement and the leadership in the two countries remain implacably at odds. The government of Ethiopia faces opposition from elements of several armed ethnic groups clamoring for more political power or even independence. There is also a growing Eritrean exile community opposed to the government in Asmara.
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