Saturday 5 November 2011

The Relationship between Aid, Insurgency & Security [Part Two]

This report is the second in a series addressing the relationship between foreign aid and security in Afghanistan. The first report in this series focused primarily upon the statistical correlation between development assistance and levels of insurgent violence. While its findings were nuanced, the research outlined in the first report suggested that reconstruction and development assistance – while commonly viewed as a means of countering insurgency – may actually be correlated with greater numbers of insurgent attacks. Case study evidence from the Feinstein International Center [FIC] at Tufts University cited in the first report also suggested that, in Afghanistan, aid had a negligible or perhaps negative impact upon levels of insurgent violence.

This second report focuses more upon Afghanistan than the first report in this series and moves away from statistical correlations. Rather, it presents various explanations that have been developed by leading analysts and researchers for why security in Afghanistan has decreased sharply while development assistance increased markedly. The goal of this report is primarily to identify ways in which the reconstruction and development strategy relates to the intensity and scale of the conflict. The following issues are examined: [i] the congruence between Afghans' priorities and the allocation of development assistance, [ii] the relationship between aid and governance, including corruption, and [iii] the potential for aid funding to have inadvertently financed insurgent groups. Read more

The Relationship between Aid, Insurgency & Security [Part One]

This report covers a variety of publications addressing the impact of international development assistance on insurgent violence. A recent historical review of mid-conflict stabilisation missions published in the journal Disasters noted that civilian and military actors have provided aid to locations in the midst of conflict for well over a century. Examining counter-insurgency [COIN] missions in the Philippines, Algeria, Vietnam and El Salvador from as early as 1898 to as recently as 1992, the authors suggested that stabilisation operations such as the one currently taking place in Afghanistan have been based on the belief that reconstruction and development projects as well as financial assistance – hereafter termed “foreign aid” or “aid” – have a beneficial impact upon security [i.e., reducing violence]. This “security-development nexus” involved, in each of the historical cases as well as contemporary ones such as Afghanistan and Iraq, the logic of intervention outlined below [see Figure 1]. In short, by promoting the well-being of the local population – in addition to territorial security and sufficiently legitimate state institutions – stabilisation actors can win the favour of the host nation citizenry and erode insurgents' ability to operate effectively. The result may either be a military victory for counter-insurgent forces, the flight and temporary withdrawal of the insurgents or the attainment of a negotiations-inducing stalemate. Read more

Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations

A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa’s governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semiauthoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.

Recognizing these complex and still fluid crosscurrents, this Working Group embarked on an analysis of the linkages between the Arab Spring and African democracy — with an eye on the implications for governance norms on the continent over the next several years. Read more

Friday 4 November 2011

Experiences of Female Survivors of Sexual Violence in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Mixed-Methods Study

Background: The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC] is the deadliest since World War II. Over a decade of fighting amongst an array of armed groups has resulted in extensive human rights abuses, particularly the widespread use of sexual violence against women.

Interpretation: Rape results not only in physical and psychological trauma, but can destroy family and community structures. Women face significant obstacles in seeking services after rape. Interventions offering long-term solutions for hyper-vulnerable women are vital, but lacking; reintegration programs on SGBV for women, men, and communities are also needed. Read more

Libyan Oil: Before and After Moammar Gaddafi

While National Transitional Council [NTC] forces, with the help of NATO, were successful in toppling the regime of Moammar Gaddafi, future Libyan oil production remains uncertain. Current production is at very low levels as a result of the tenuous security conditions created by the eight month conflict, which began in February 2011. Uncertainty surrounds the NTC’s ability to create a secure environment, in which foreign oil companies are willing to return to the oil fields of Libya. This report provides a chronological overview with a discussion of the role and significance of Libyan oil both domestically and internationally. The document then explores the economic implications of the Libyan conflict on oil markets. It examines the challenges to be met in resuming oil production in post-conflict Libya and the rising concerns over oil prices and future oil production. Read more

Thursday 3 November 2011

Court drops one of three charges against Swedish journalists

Reporters Without Borders is relieved to learn that an Addis Ababa court today dropped a charge of participating in terrorist activity against Swedish journalists Johan Persson and Martin Schibbye of the Kontinent news agency, who nonetheless continue to be tried on charges of supporting a terrorist group and entering Ethiopia illegally.

At the end of today’s hearing, the trial was adjourned until 6 December. The two journalists will meanwhile remain in detention.

“We hope that the court will also drop the charge of supporting a terrorist group,” Reporters Without Borders said. “Persson and Schibbye are recognized journalists and have nothing in common with terrorists. All they did was enter the Ogaden without proper documents because that region is closed to the media. Their goal was just to report on what is going on there.” Read more

U.S. Expands Drone Flights to Take Aim at East Africa

he military has reopened a base for the unmanned aircraft on the island nation of Seychelles to intensify attacks on al Qaeda affiliates, particularly in Somalia, defense officials told The Wall Street Journal.

The U.S. has used the Seychelles base for flying surveillance drones, and for the first time will fly armed MQ-9 Reapers from the Indian Ocean site, supplementing strikes from a U.S. drone base in Djibouti.



The MQ-9 Reaper drone

The move comes as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other officials have stressed a need to urgently follow up on the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in May with operations to destroy his terrorist organization.

U.S. officials say they are concerned that al Qaeda—under pressure from U.S. operations in Pakistan—is moving to expand operations through its affiliates in East Africa, and that a new charismatic militant leader could emerge there.

Stepped-up surveillance on the militant groups is needed to help keep al Qaeda affiliates in check, officials said.

"We do not know enough about the leaders of the al Qaeda affiliates in Africa," said a senior U.S. official. "Is there a guy out there saying, 'I am the future of al Qaeda'? Who is the next Osama bin Laden?"

The U.S. military has long operated a base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, and has already used drones against militants in Somalia.



The new Seychelles base, with the Reaper deployment, will allow for more flights and improved operational security, giving the military a better chance at uncovering and destroying al Qaeda training camps in East Africa, officials said. Militants can sometimes spot and track drones that fly over land from the base at Camp Lemonier in Djibouti—something that will be more difficult at an island base. Read more

East Africa: Why Capturing Kismayu Could Trigger Proxy Wars for Kenya

In conversations with diplomats, government officials, and intelligence sources in the region, a clear picture has started emerging of a war that has been in the making over the past five years and one that could dramatically reorder the Somali state, and just possibly bring about the peace that has proved so elusive over the past two decades.

According to these sources, Kenya's military offensive was timely, coming as it did when the Al Shabaab militants are at their weakest and at a time when there is convergence of opinion in the wider East African region about what to do about the crisis in Somalia.

However, a clearer strategy crafted by Somali leaders and regional players in the conflict is also emerging. The first step, the sources say, is to create three new "areas of influence" in the rest of Somalia, beside Somaliland and Puntland, which now function as independent territories.

These territories would provide a buffer zone for Kenya and Ethiopia. Already, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone spanning Galgadud, Hiraan, Bay, Bakool and Gedo.

Kenya's military ambition is to create a buffer zone spanning Gedo El Wak, Middle and Lower Juba regions.

Ultimately, these regions will be governed as semi-automous states at first that could one day form part of a strong united federal government of Somalia.

The second step after the fall of Kismayu would to be to hand over all "liberated" areas to Amisom. Read More

Shock and awe in Somalia? Sorry, it isn’t a board game

enyans are justifiably worried too — artists, journalists and writers associated with Concerned Kenyans Writers have already issued a statement essentially saying that this is not being done in our name.

Diplomatic missions have issued upgraded security advisories to their citizens resident in Kenya. And, publicly, are taking a naive sort of wait-and-see position, professing lack of prior knowledge as to what Kenya had clearly been planning for a while.

The recent kidnappings attributed to Al Shabaab, based on changing official statements, were clearly just an excuse to legitimise the offensive.

Al Shabaab has itself denied responsibility for the kidnappings — somewhat curiously, given its propensity for publicity. And it has, naturally, promised retaliation.

Kenya’s security apparatus seems determined to trudge on. Its attitude is that all “irrelevant” security issues — the minor matter of human-rights violations committed by Kenyan security services in an almost routine manner, for example — can be disregarded as so much buzzing around of flies to be swatted away. Read more

Kenyan Motives in Somalia Predate Recent Abductions

NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenyan government revealed on Wednesday that its extensive military foray into Somalia this month to battle Islamist militants was not simply a response to a wave of recent kidnappings, as previously claimed, but was actually planned far in advance, part of a covert strategy to penetrate Somalia and keep the violence in one of Africa’s most anarchic countries from spilling into one of Africa’s most stable. Read more

Kenya: Kibaki Gambles On Regional War With Al Shabaab

As the Kenyan army ventured deeper into Somalia, in its first cross-border campaign in 44 years, a regional grand strategy to deal with Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen is beginning to emerge.

Kenya's intervention was under detailed consideration several weeks before Nairobi's official declaration of war against Al Shabaab on 15 October. There is little substance to media claims that United States diplomats based in Nairobi were surprised by Kenya's operation. Both the USA and Britain run substantive regional counter-terrorism operations from Nairobi.

Although the mobilisation was initially announced as a 'hot pursuit' operation against Somali-based groups who had kidnapped tourists in north-eastern Kenya, President Mwai Kibaki's government and Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) quickly characterised the military campaign as a coordinated effort, even if Kenya appeared to be acting unilaterally. Read more

Somalia • Famine & Drought

Just over 100 days have passed since famine was declared in southern Somalia on 20 July. Since July,
there has been a significant scale-up in response activities. At least 2.2 million people have benefited from
enhanced access to food, up from 770,000 before July. Nearly 1.2 million people now have sustained access
to safe drinking water compared to 850,000 by
the end of June, with an additional 1.8 million
people receiving temporary water provision.
Partners have established at least 217 new
nutrition treatment centres since July, with 1,142
static and mobile centres able to treat children by
the end of September. Some 1.16 million
children have been immunized against measles
since July. Partners significantly increased food
voucher, cash-for-work and cash relief
programmes since the declaration of famine, with
1,177,229 people benefiting from these
programmes since July, compared to 100,201
from January to June. Read more

A Diplomatic Surge to Stop Somalia’s Famine

Somalia is dying. Three-quarters of a million people are at immediate risk of famine;
another 750,000 are refugees in neighboring countries, and 4 million – half the total
population – is in need of emergency aid. It is a calamity that could join the ranks of the
Rwanda genocide and the Darfur crisis in terms of scale and human suffering. And for
Somalia it is a terrible repeat of the 1991-92 famine that claimed 240,000 lives.
The international response to date has been shockingly inadequate – not just because
funds for humanitarian aid have fallen short, but because of the absence of political will
to take bold diplomatic action to remove impediments to the delivery of aid. Read more

Somalia and 6 others Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea pursuant to Security Council resolution 1916 (2010) (S/2011/433)

The UN panel is tasked with monitoring compliance with embargoes on the delivery of weapons and military equipment to Somalia and Eritrea, as well as probing activities – financial, maritime or in another field – which generate revenue used to violate those embargoes.

The report states that the Eritrean Government “conceived, planned, organized and directed a failed plot to disrupt the African Union summit in Addis Ababa by bombing a variety of civilian and governmental targets.”

It adds that “since the Eritrean intelligence apparatus responsible for the African Union summit plot is also active in Kenya, Somalia, the Sudan and Uganda, the level of threat it poses to these other countries must be re-evaluated.”

The report, which is over 400 pages, also points to Eritrea’s continuing relationship with Al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant group that controls some parts of Somalia’s territory and has been waging a fierce battle against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) there.

While the Eritrean Government acknowledges that it maintains relationships with Somali armed opposition groups, including Al-Shabaab, it denies that it provides any military, material or financial support and says its links are limited to a political, and even humanitarian, nature.

However, evidence and testimony obtained by the Monitoring Group, including records of financial payments, interviews with eyewitnesses and data relating to maritime and aviation movements, all indicate that Eritrean support for Somali armed opposition groups is not limited to the political or humanitarian dimensions.

The Group says that Eritrea’s continuing relationship with Al-Shabaab appears designed to “legitimize and embolden the group rather than to curb its extremist orientation or encourage its participation in a political process.”

Moreover, Eritrean involvement in Somalia reflects a broader pattern of intelligence and special operations activity, including training, financial and logistical support to armed opposition groups in Djibouti, Ethiopia, the Sudan and possibly Uganda in violation of the Security Council’s embargoes. Read more

Twenty Years of Collapse and Counting The Cost of Failure in Somalia

The disastrous famine in Somalia is the worst the world has seen in 20 years, and it again casts a harsh spotlight on the situation in that country. With millions of people now at risk of starvation, and appalling stories of human hardship dominating the evening news, the name “Somalia” once again conjures images of crisis and despair—a famished, suffering country peopled by pirates, terrorists, and warlords.

Somalia is best known for the civil war and famine of the early 1990s, which killed some 250,000 people and triggered a massive, U.S.-led humanitarian intervention that culminated in the infamous “Black Hawk Down” incident of 1994. More recently, the rise of indigenous Islamist movements in southern Somalia has rekindled fears that the anarchic territory could—or has—become a safe haven for Al Qaeda and other transnational terrorist movements. Read more

Wednesday 2 November 2011

The miniAtlas of Human Security

This at-a-glance guide to global security issues provides a wealth of information on armed conflicts since 1946. It maps political violence, the links between poverty and conflict, assaults on human rights - including the use of child soldiers - and the causes of war and peace. Extraordinary changes have taken place since the end of the Cold War. Despite the escalating violence in Iraq, and the widening war in Darfur, there has been a decline in armed conflict worldwide. The number of battle-deaths, genocides and refugees has also decreased. Many of these changes can be attributed to international activism - spearheaded by the UN - that seeks to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post-conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from flaring up again. Specially designed to show detailed information on a small scale, the miniAtlas of Human Security is a succinct introduction to today's most pressing security challenges. Read more

Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War

The new Human Security Report from the Human Security Research Project at Simon Fraser University argues that long-term trends are reducing the risks of both international and civil wars. The Report, which is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom and will be published by Oxford University Press, also examines recent developments that suggest the world is becoming a more dangerous place.

Part I of the new Report examines the forces and political developments that have driven down the number of international conflicts and war deaths since the 1950s, and the number of civil wars since the early 1990s. It argues that the fact that these forces persist, or have strengthened, provides grounds for cautious optimism about the future of global security.

Part II examines the paradox of mortality rates that decline during the overwhelming majority of today’s wars, as well as the challenges and controversies involved in measuring indirect war deaths—those caused by war-exacerbated disease and malnutrition.

Part III, “Trends in Human Insecurity,” reviews recent trends in conflict numbers and death tolls around the world, and updates the conflict and other trend data in previous HSRP publications. Read more

Violence as a Bargaining Tool: The Role of Youths in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

The role played by youths in 2007–2008 electoral violence in Kenya was in reaction to four decades of political and social deprivation set within a culture of structural violence established and upheld by successive national governments. This environment, constructed for the benefit of a relatively few individuals and groups, fueled simmering animosities and desire for the economic spoils of political control. Solutions to youth violence can be sought in changes aimed at improving long-term relationships, altering attitudes among conflicting parties, and developing socio-economic and political systems that promote inclusivity, equity, recognition, and reconciliation. Read more