In conversations with diplomats, government officials, and intelligence sources in the region, a clear picture has started emerging of a war that has been in the making over the past five years and one that could dramatically reorder the Somali state, and just possibly bring about the peace that has proved so elusive over the past two decades.
According to these sources, Kenya's military offensive was timely, coming as it did when the Al Shabaab militants are at their weakest and at a time when there is convergence of opinion in the wider East African region about what to do about the crisis in Somalia.
However, a clearer strategy crafted by Somali leaders and regional players in the conflict is also emerging. The first step, the sources say, is to create three new "areas of influence" in the rest of Somalia, beside Somaliland and Puntland, which now function as independent territories.
These territories would provide a buffer zone for Kenya and Ethiopia. Already, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone spanning Galgadud, Hiraan, Bay, Bakool and Gedo.
Kenya's military ambition is to create a buffer zone spanning Gedo El Wak, Middle and Lower Juba regions.
Ultimately, these regions will be governed as semi-automous states at first that could one day form part of a strong united federal government of Somalia.
The second step after the fall of Kismayu would to be to hand over all "liberated" areas to Amisom. Read More
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