South Sudan and Sudan Back to War? A View from Juba

The recent volatility of the Sudan-South Sudan relationship raises important questions about why peace and stability between the two countries is so tenuous. From interviews conducted in Juba, South Sudan’s leaders appear open to continued talks and to the establishment of improved relations with Khartoum, especially in response to international pressure to do so. But there is a perceptible shift within the leadership in Juba toward disengagement with Sudan.

The dominance of hardliners in Khartoum politics, a long history of broken agreements with Khartoum, Juba’s doubts about the international community’s ability to fairly mediate between South Sudan and Sudan, and a post-independence sentiment that South Sudan must assert its sovereignty in response to continued Northern aggression have all contributed to a growing feeling that negotiations with Khartoum may not be the best means of achieving Juba’s strategic interests. But Juba’s reactions to Khartoum remain sensitive to cues from the international community, a legacy of international actors’ deep involvement in the negotiation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and support for the successful independence of South Sudan. Maintaining a positive image before the international community is still critically important to South Sudan’s leaders. Read more