Wednesday 5 January 2011

Beyond Southern Sudan

JANUARY’S REFERENDA ON SOUTHERN SUDAN’S SELFdetermination
and the status of Abyei are two of
the most important events to occur within the
region in years, if not decades. Media and
diplomatic attention on the potential local and
national fallout is as inevitable as it is
understandable. However, the referenda and
subsequent negotiations are not the only coming
events within the unstable triangle of Sudan, Chad and the
Central African Republic (CAR). Ignoring Sudan’s two
western neighbours – the CAR and Chad – risks overlooking
the fragile balance of stability within, as well as between, the
three countries.
Despite numerous postponements, presidential elections are
now due to be held in the CAR on January 23 and in Chad on
May 8, with the latter’s parliamentary and local elections in
February and March respectively. The two former French
colonies have historically been beset by conflict, including
involvement by the military in political affairs, and are
consistently two of the ten most vulnerable states worldwide
according to the Fund for Peace/Foreign Policy Failed State
Index. Furthermore, they continue to be entangled with events
beyond their borders.
Chad and the CAR are ranked low on the 2010 Ibrahim
Index on African Governance, and elections in either country
do not necessarily indicate good governance or guaranteed
future stability. The CAR’s incumbent leader, President
François Bozizé, came to power in a military coup in 2003
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