Towards the end of the six-year interim period defined in the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA), Sudan is potentially sliding into yet another crisis. The
general elections in April – the first in 24 years – represent a rare test of confidence for the country’s incumbent elites. For many observers, however, the
elections are merely a prelude to the referendum on the future status of South
Sudan scheduled for early 2011. Both the general elections and the referendum come at the end of a transitional period that has, in many ways, been more about stagnation than about transition.
The implementation of the CPA has often been delayed and was marred by a lack
of trust between its signatories: the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s
Liberation Movement (SPLM). As a consequence, the agreement has largely failed
to realize democratic transformation and to make the unity of the country attractive.
Instead, political tensions in the run-up to the elections indicate that older
conflicts still persist, and that the referendum will only reconfigure challenges.
The already fragile situation could easily trigger a new outbreak of violence
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