frica and the Gulf crisis: the peril of picking sides

As the Gulf crisis enters its third week, the decision to cut or downgrade diplomatic ties with Qatar by eight African countries could have a long-term impact on the nationals of those countries, analysts warned.
"This is not good for Africa. This is rush decision-making and taking sides in a crisis that the leaders have no clear grasp of is dangerous and will scare investors away," Adama Gaye, a Senegalese foreign policy expert told Al Jazeera.
On June 5, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt announced that they were cutting ties with Qatar and imposing land, sea and air blockades.
The Arab countries accuse Doha of supporting "terrorism" and "extremist groups" - charges which Qatar strongly denies.

Soon after the announcement, some Gulf envoys and ministers started shuttle diplomacy, travelling between countries trying to convince allies to cut ties with Qatar. readmore

       The Petrodollar Is in Trouble

As Saudi Arabia continues to liquidate more of its foreign exchange reserves, it means serious trouble for the petrodollar system

Steve St. Angelo

Sun, Jun 18, 2017 | 8297 182

The birth of the petrodollar

The U.S. PetroDollar system is in serious trouble as the Middle East’s largest oil producer continues to suffer as the low oil price devastates its financial bottom line.  Saudi Arabia, the key player in the PetroDollar system, continues to liquidate its foreign exchange reserves as the current price of oil is not covering the cost to produce oil as well as finance its readmore

UAE Presence Expands in Africa

UAE Presence Expands in Africa

www.shephardmedia.com | December 20, 2016

The United Arab Emirates has signed an agreement to establish a second foreign military base in the Horn of Africa.

The new base, according to the source present at the negotiations, will be established at the coastal city of Berbera in Somaliland and will be an air and naval base. According to the government source the MoU was signed in the last week of September when a senior Somaliland delegation was in the UAE.

The self governing semi-autonomous Somaliland and the UAE enjoyed close political, economic and military ties since 2012.

The cooperation between the two countries intensified after the UAE’s involvement in the Yemen operations where the region’s strategic location south of the Bab al Mandeb strait proved crucial to their projection capabilities.

An area of 40km sq compromising of Berbera airport and sea front have been provided to the UAE for a period of 25 years and is renewable, the source added.

The base has been provided in exchange for security training, support and protection to the autonomous region, the source added, providing a much needed security blanket to Somaliland which borders Somalia to the south.

Just five kilometres away from the base UAE ports giant, Dubai Ports World, has signed earlier this year a $442 million deal to develop Berbera port. The 30 year deal will see the commercial port expanded and doubled in size next to a large free zone and other infrastructure projects to provide a new gate way to Ethiopia, Africa’s fastest growing economy.

According to Alexander Mello, security analyst at New York based Horizon Client Access the UAE’s plan to operate their Eritrean Assab base simultaneously with the Berbera base is quite plausible.

‘Assab is still a pretty austere base, the work the UAE is doing there – especially the the expansion of the hangars and apron and building a new docking facility for UAE vessels 10km north of of current Assab port – is consistent with a long-term UAE presence,’ Mello said.

The UAE has been putting up aircraft shelters and deployed half a squadron of Mirage 2000 fighters to the base in September, Mello added, which again is consistent with a long-term presence.

‘They might be speeding up development of Berbera now to have a base out of Houthi missile range. It’s possible Assab will be focused more on supporting ops in Yemen and Berbera will be primarily used for conducting naval and air ops in the Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden with the U.S. and Egypt,’ he said.

Shehab al Makahaleh, political analyst at consultancy group Geostrategic Media, said that despite the UAE previously adopting a cautious foreign policy the recent financial chaos, the Arab Spring and Islamic militancy has forced the UAE to safeguard their national security by securing major sea ports in Africa.

‘The UAE is increasingly focused on projecting military power, the unrest has prompted the UAE to have its own base in the Eritrean port of Assab. In 2015, this simple port was built up from empty desert into a modern airbase, deep-water port, and military training facility,’ he said.

Al Makahleh said that ‘the rapid militarization’ in the Horn of Africa by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, China, Russia, the UK, France – and the American presence on the west coast – under the aim to preserve the security and stability of the region has turned out to be a competition for its resources.

Source: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/mil-log/uae-presence-expands-africa/

Egypt-Gulf relations tested by Saudi visit to Ethiopia dam

source    Middle East Eye      Egyptian media lashed out at Saudi Arabia over a high-level Saudi delegation visit to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a short trip to Ethiopia on Friday. Experts said the decision to visit the GERD was an act of revenge against Egypt that could deepen tensions between the two countries.
Ahmed al-Khateeb, a senior adviser at the Saudi royal court and board chairman of the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), visited the site and met Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and other officials to discuss GERD’s construction project.
Khateeb’s trip came after the Saudi agriculture minister visited Ethiopia last week, making it the second visit by a Saudi official to Addis Ababa in less than a week.

'You will soon hear that we have the capacity to intervene in the Gulf region's affairs and provide support for the royals who oppose current Saudi policies'
- Tarek Fahmy, Egyptian professor

On Saturday, Egyptian news commentator Mohamed Ali Khayr called on Riyadh to "review its policies before it can only blame itself for what ensues".
"Egypt is not obliged to continue to contain its reactions towards Saudi Arabia... any interference [by Saudi Arabia] in the GERD project implies a direct threat to Egypt’s national security," he said on Egyptian TV.
Khayr went as far as accusing Saudi policy makers of being "amateurs" that have caused bilateral relations between the two countries to completely break down as a result of this visit.
On Saturday, Ahmed Moussa, another journalist, threatened Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states that if they were to invest in Ethiopia, their investment would be lost in the Nile.

< Workers build the Grand Renaissance Dam near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border (AFP)

Moussa continued to condemn the visit over his talk show on Sada al-Balad, an Egyptian satellite TV channel.
"The GERD will not last forever, a volcano might erupt at any moment. So for those looking to invest billions [of dollars] in this project, your money might as well be going to waste," said Moussa.

'Egypt has many cards'

Egyptian media personalities were joined in their denunciation of the Saudi visit by several academics who voiced strong criticisms against the Gulf state for its policy.
"You will soon hear that we [Egypt] have the capacity to intervene in the Gulf region's affairs and provide support for the royals who oppose current Saudi policies," Tarek Fahmy, a lecturer at the American University in Cairo, told viewers of Sada al-Balad on Saturday.
Fahmy warned Saudi Arabia that Egypt’s patience is waning and that Cairo will no longer accept actions that threaten its national security.

READ: Ethiopian mega-dam project leaves Egypt high and dry

"Egypt has many cards to pressure Saudi Arabia, which we have yet to use," Fahmy said.
However, he added that Cairo wanted to continue its friendly relations with its "siblings in the Gulf".
Meanwhile, Egyptian political science professor Hassan Nafaa told Daily News Egypt on Sunday that the visit was an indirect message from Saudi Arabia that it could align itself with anyone if Egypt does not comply with Saudi foreign policy.
Nafaa said the visit will likely increase tensions in Saudi-Egyptian relations, saying that Cairo would not be tolerating Saudi’s implicit support for the GERD.

Many Eyptians fear that the waters of the Nile will drop with the opening of the Ethiopia dam (AFP)

The 6,000-megawatt GERD, which is not yet 70 percent complete, is situated close to Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. While Ethiopia hopes it will be able to export energy generated by the dam, Egypt has long expressed concerns that the dam might reduce the amount of Nile water it receives, thus affecting its main source of irrigation water.
Relations between Cairo and Riyadh have soured since Egypt voted in favour of a UN Security Council draft resolution by Russia regarding the Syrian civil war.

READ: 'Our children will die of thirst'

Egypt took an opposing position to Saudi Arabia by choosing to support the Syrian government and army against rebel fighters – Saudi's envoy to the UN described Egypt’s vote as "painful".
Since the vote, the Saudi ministry of petroleum said that Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, has suspended its oil aid to Egypt but that the five-year agreement is still in effect.
Egyptian officials, including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, have repeatedly denied any tension with Saudi Arabia.

Qatari-Egyptian relations shaken

As Egypt’s alliance with Saudi Arabia continues to deteriorate, bilateral relations with Qatar have also been tested in a new series of obstacles.
Tensions grew after a Qatari national wrote on Twitter that Qatar will no longer be issuing work permits for Egyptians.
"Qatar has been extremely patient in regard to Egypt’s 'dirty' policies. It is now time for payback," he added in the tweet.
After the tweet was mistakenly ascribed to deputy Qatari minister of trade Sultan bin Rashed al-Khater, news of Qatar’s "new policies" spread across Egyptian media platforms with Egyptian commentators condemning the alleged move as an official decision to deny Egyptians entry into the Gulf state.

'Circulating information without verifying it has resulted in disastrous ramifications'
- Jaber al-Qarmouty, Egyptian commentator

Spokesperson for the Egyptian prime ministry, Ashraf Sultan, issued a statement denying that Egyptian labourers had been expelled from Saudi Arabia and Qatar and confirming that the news was only a rumour.
In a television interview on Egyptian satellite TV channel Alassema 2, Sultan said: "We are completely transparent when it comes to information we receive. Any changes would be communicated directly to you all."
Sultan said citizens should verify information before circulating it to avoid the spread of rumours such as this, it was reported by Elwehda news website.
At the same time, the minister of manpower, Mohamed Saafan, denied reports that Qatar had decided to reject applications by Egyptians for work permits, adding that there were 150,000 Egyptians working in Qatar at the moment.
Saafan said he met with the Qatari minister of labour on Thursday to discuss the rights of Egyptian workers in Qatar, highlighting that Egyptian-Qatari relations continue to be fully respectful.

READ: Destruction of dams: Will IS carry through with its threats?

Meanwhile, Egyptian commentator Jaber al-Qarmouty condemned the Egyptian media for circulating the tweet and building false reports upon it.
"Circulating information without verifying it has resulted in disastrous ramifications, which in this case can only be considered a slap in the face of Egyptian media personalities," Elwehda news website quoted Qarmouty as saying.
Relations between Qatar and Egypt have been shaken since Doha showed support for former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi – who was ousted in a military coup led by then General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Qatar has also voiced support for Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, which was outlawed by Cairo.
Egypt has accused Qatar of using state-funded Al Jazeera news network to tint the image of Egypt’s military by publishing news and documentaries that show the army in a negative light source

Amid Saudi-Egyptian strained relations, King Salman’s adviser reportedly visited Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Informed media sources said that Ahmed Al-Khatib, the adviser of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, has paid a visit to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam within the framework of his current presence in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, to find out the possibility of renewable energy generation.

The Ethiopian source, that accompanied the Saudi official to the dam, said that Al-Khatib, who arrived in Addis Ababa Friday, visited the dam on the same day, and was received by the project manager Semegnew Bekele.
The visit agenda of Al-Khatib and his accompanying delegation was undeclared, especially concerning the Renaissance Dam, which was not also mentioned by the Saudi Press Agency.
According to the official Ethiopian television, the adviser to the Saudi monarch, met yesterday, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.
The Ethiopian TV pointed out that during the meeting, it was agreed to form a joint committee for cooperation between the two countries in the field of energy.
For his part, Desalegn called Saudi Arabia to support the project financially and to invest in Ethiopia, according to the Ethiopian television itself.
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia emphasized his country’s desire to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in the fields of energy, roads, electricity, agriculture, as well as cooperation in the field of tourism.
For his part, Al-Khatib said that Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia said they had enormous potentials that will enable the two countries to work together for promoting and strengthening their economic and diplomatic ties.
Al-Khatib also held consultations with the Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs and pointed out that Saudi investors desire to work in Ethiopia in various investment fields.
Al-Khatib’s visit to Ethiopia is the second by Saudi officials within days, where Saudi Minister of Agriculture Abdul Rahman bin Abdul Mohsen al-Fadhli visited Ethiopia last week.
In 1948 diplomatic relations between the two countries began at the Chargé d’affaires level, and in 1994, diplomatic representation was upgraded to the rank of ambassador.

Saudi-Egyptian relations strained

Saudi Arabia was a major supporter of the military-backed regime in Egypt following the 2013 coup against Mohamed Morsi, the country’s first freely elected president, and has channeled billions of dollars in support of Egypt’s economy. readmore

Saudi Arabia and the GCC are Expanding To Eritrea. Geopolitical Implications for Ethiopia

By Andrew Korybko

Global Research, November 18, 2015

Katehon 16 November 2015

Region: Middle East & North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa

Recent media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have contracted Eritrea’s government for assistance in the War on Yemen, using the East African state as a transit and logistics base for their operations, as well as 400 of its troops for cannon fodder in Aden.

Add to it the Qatari soldiers that have already been present on the ground for a few years to “mediate” the border dispute with Djibouti, and the most important members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have unexpectedly converged in what many might think to be among one of the most unlikeliest of places. While it may have been difficult to foresee this happening, in hindsight it actually makes quite a lot of sense, and contrary to the conventional assessment that this is about Yemen, the argument can be made that it’s also just as much about Ethiopia as well. Unbeknownst to many, Qatar is the “ox driving the cart” in this case, and whether they like it or not, the rest of the GCC states will be reluctantly forced to follow its destabilizing lead if Doha decides to throw Ethiopia into chaos.

The research expands on the briefing first laid out by South Front and should be seen as a continuation of their original work. It begins by setting the context for what’s been going on along the Horn of Africa lately and how the GCC’s military advances fit into the larger context of recent history. The piece then investigates the levers of influence for how Qatar could destabilize Ethiopia as well as its radical ideological motivations for doing so. Finally, the article concludes with a scenario study of how Qatar could engineer an Unconventional War to bring down Africa’s next up-and-coming power readmore

Saudi Arabia To Build Military Base In Djibouti

Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf said a deal to build a Saudi military base in the country will happen “very soon.”

“The security, military and strategic draft of the accord is ready and the coastal areas that could host the base, be it military or naval, have been identified after Saudi military officers and officials explored some of the Djibouti areas. “We have agreed on the base, and the accord is still valid,” the minister said in an interview with London-based Saudi owned Al Sharq Al Awsat daily on Sunday.

The deal was initially discussed in March earlier this year. readmore

“There are no hesitations on the deal and the delay is purely technical as such matters do take some time, and there are no political reasons behind it,” the minister said