Causes of Civil War: Micro Level Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire

A multiethnic country like Côte d’Ivoire, which was relatively stable until the late 1980s, has been mired in crisis in the last two decades and experienced large-scale violence. This paper undertakes a disaggregated analysis of the civil war at sub-national levels in Cote d’Ivoire for the period from 1998 to 2006 using: (1) nationally representative household survey data, and (2) the ACLED conflict database that contains information on the date and geographical location of conflicts. We use both the department and the sub-prefecture levels as units of analysis, and find robust evidence that ethnic diversity is significantly associated with conflicts. We also find strong empirical evidence that the share of Ivoirites population and the share of Muslim population is a significant determinant of civil war at the sub-prefecture level. Furthermore, more populous areas are at high risk of civil war, but the outcome is statistically significant only at the department level. However, we do not find significant evidence that income inequality and land inequality have determined the level of civil conflict. Overall the findings suggest ethnicity and religious identities are the significant determinants of civil war in Cote d’Ivoire. Read more

End of the Roadmap: Somalia after the London and Istanbul Conferences

Indications are that, with continued international support and pressure, Somalia's Transition Roadmap will continue towards its goal of handing over to a caretaker administration on 20 August, 2012.

As such, Somalia's international partners should focus in the next few months on how to transform the momentum injected into the Roadmap process into policy attention and diplomatic support, or pressure, needed to see the caretaker administration develop into more of a government. A more functional government would focus on the provision of services beyond the attention already paid to the security sector.

The end of the Roadmap will not signal an end to Somalia's transition. The new administration will face many of the same challenges threatening the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and some others generated by the Roadmap process itself. However some progress has been made in Mogadishu, and Somalis – especially in civil society and the private sector – are in a position to build upon that base. Constructive international engagement could support that process. Read more

Cruelty and Denial: Medial Evidence for State-Sponsored Torture in Ethiopia

: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front [EPRDF] have ruled Ethiopia since 1991. In 1994, the Government of Ethiopia [GOE] became a signatory to the U.N. Convention on Torture and other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment and Punishment, incorporated the language of the Convention into its constitution, and subsequently criminalized all acts of torture committed in the country. Over the past two decades there has been a widening gap between law and practice, with numerous reports of torture of dissidents in conflict zones [the Ogaden area of Somali, and Gambella regions], and elsewhere in the country. This report is a detailed analysis of the alleged torture history, and the physical and psychological findings from forensic examination of 102 asylum seekers in the United States who presented credible evidence that they were tortured in Ethiopia. This study is unique because it is the first comprehensive medical forensic analysis of a cohort of asylum seekers from Ethiopia, a country whose officials deny that it engages in torture, and cruel and degrading practices.

This study confirms the growing body of evidence that torture is widespread, systemic and committed with impunity by GOE officials, police, and the military to control opposition to the EPRDF. The arrests and the alleged torture described by our patients were entirely extrajudicial, with no charges being made, often resulting in long detentions, and prisoners denied access to counsel and the courts. It is evident from the statement of the U.N. Committee Against Torture in 2010, that the GOE is in violation of the Convention on Torture, including article , which requires signatories to take action to prevent acts of torture. This situation is likely to worsen with the passage of the 2009 Anti-Terrorism Law, which permits security officers and police to engage in torture rather than criminalize it, and the Charities and Societies Law which weakens monitoring of abuses committed in prison. It is in the United States’ interest to move away from its policy of “quiet diplomacy” towards Ethiopia, and in concert with its donor partners, leverage the enormous amount of development aid given to Ethiopia to force it to uphold and comply with the articles and principles of the Convention. Read more

People's Peacemaking Perspectives: West Africa: Policy Brief

In West Africa, conflicts have often had a sub-regional impact or spilled over to neighbouring countries through ethnic relations, allegiances and economic interests across borders, movements of fighters between conflicts, or the mass influx of refugees fleeing violence. Findings and recommendations in this brief aim to inform the EU's analysis and programming by presenting the reflections of local people and their state and non-state representatives on some of the key challenges facing countries in the region. Read more

Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government [TFG] expires in a half-year; and emboldened troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia [AMISOM], Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to deal the weakened [though still potent] extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab further defeats. This confluence of factors presents the best chance in years for peace and stability in the south and centre of the country. To achieve that, however, requires regional and wider international unity of purpose and an agreement on basic principles; otherwise spoilers could undermine all peacebuilding efforts. The crisis has been climbing steadily back up the international agenda. The one-day London Somalia Conference on 23 February will bring together senior representatives from over 40 countries, the UN, African Union [AU], European Union [EU], World Bank, Inter-Governmental Authority for Development [IGAD], Organisation of Islamic Conference [OIC] and League of Arab States. Somalia’s Transitional Federal Institutions [TFIs] will participate, as well as the presidents of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug [regional governments] and representatives of the largest armed group, Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a [ASWJ]. It should prepare the way for desperately needed greater coordination, especially with Gulf and regional states, as well as between AMISOM and the UN. Coordination is required because the mandate of the TFG is set to run out in August 2012. Although it has failed to achieve any of its core objectives, many officials desire another extension, such as it received a year ago. But it is unreformable – too many of its members benefit from the fully unsatisfactory status quo. It must not be extended. Instead, the London Conference should agree on a new political framework and principles for governing Somalia. Readmore

Time Works Against Justice: Ending Impunity in Eastern Congo

The United States and the international community must strongly support Congolese partners to reform the country’s justice system in order to break the flagrant cycle of impunity and promote accountability, according to a new Enough Project report. This report recommends strategies to tackle justice reform in Congo, where a lack of accountability has fostered a war that has killed more than five million people. “There has never been a systematic attempt to address the issue of impunity within the Congolese justice system,” said Aaron Hall, Enough Project Congo policy analyst and report co-author. “The lack of accountability for war crimes including the murder of civilians, rape, plunder, and extortion is one of the key obstacles to creating an environment for peace and development in eastern Congo.” The international community should use a multi-pronged approach of state-level conditionally-based pressure and civil society support to ensure Congo implements Specialized Mixed Courts to try international human rights crimes committed in Congo that fall outside the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, according to the paper Read More

Rape and the Arab Spring: The Dark Side of the Popular Uprisings in the Middle East

The Middle East is undergoing a profound and dramatic political transformation. But the analysis of the scope, pace, and quality of this change has focused largely on the quality and results of initial elections in countries such as Tunisia and Egypt. Unfortunately, this sort of analysis overlooks how these transitions are affecting women and minorities— key indicators of the robustness of democracies around the world. Despite the prominent role played by women in organizing the popular movements that have overthrown and challenged authoritarian regimes across the region, the early results on the treatment of women in three key countries—Egypt, Yemen, and Libya— raise serious concerns about the future of democracy and human rights in the Middle East as the region experiences tectonic political change. As momentous as these changes are, they are occurring within a social context that has made sexual violence against women a powerful instrument of political repression. In many cases sexual violence against women is a desperate reaction of the powerful elite groups linked to authoritarian leaders and dictators who are rapidly losing power and relevance. Like other forms of violence and repression, sexual violence against women has been used as a tool to punish or intimidate those advocating for political change. The most horrific of these tools being used to control women is rape. Using rape as a weapon of war is not new, but in the context of patriarchal religious societies, it holds unique potential as a horrific tool of political repression. This issue brief outlines the role women have played in three countries that experienced changes in leadership—Egypt, Yemen, and Libya. It analyzes the use of sexual violence as a tool of continued repression and a means to hold back political change, and attempts to offer recommendations to U.S. policymakers and others in the international community to help protect women in the Middle East. At the same time, the limitations in influence foreign powers like the United States have in shaping the social and political realities of these countries must be acknowledged. Read more

Kenya sends troops to attack al-Shabab

Somali opposition fighters driven out from two bases near the border in joint Kenyan-Somali military offensive. Kenya sends troops to attack al-Shabab[ Kenyan troops have crossed into Somalia and have driven out al-Shabab fighters from two bases near the border in a joint operation with Somali soldiers, according to a Somali military commander. Kenya has said it will hunt the fighters they accuse of being behind several recent kidnappings of foreigners. Abdi Yusuf, a senior Somali military commander, said on Sunday that fighter jets struck two al-Shabab bases in southern Somalia, but could not confirm if the aircraft belonged to Kenya. "There have been air strikes in ... al-Shabab bases near Afmadow late yesterday and today. We are heading towards Afmadow now. Al-Shabab have already vacated the town," he said. Alfred Mutua, the Kenyan government spokesman, said that its troops had entered southern Somalia to fight the al-Shabab, who it says are responsible for attacks on its territory. Read more

The miniAtlas of Human Security

This at-a-glance guide to global security issues provides a wealth of information on armed conflicts since 1946. It maps political violence, the links between poverty and conflict, assaults on human rights - including the use of child soldiers - and the causes of war and peace. Extraordinary changes have taken place since the end of the Cold War. Despite the escalating violence in Iraq, and the widening war in Darfur, there has been a decline in armed conflict worldwide. The number of battle-deaths, genocides and refugees has also decreased. Many of these changes can be attributed to international activism - spearheaded by the UN - that seeks to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post-conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from flaring up again. Specially designed to show detailed information on a small scale, the miniAtlas of Human Security is a succinct introduction to today's most pressing security challenges. Read more

Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War

The new Human Security Report from the Human Security Research Project at Simon Fraser University argues that long-term trends are reducing the risks of both international and civil wars. The Report, which is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom and will be published by Oxford University Press, also examines recent developments that suggest the world is becoming a more dangerous place.

Part I of the new Report examines the forces and political developments that have driven down the number of international conflicts and war deaths since the 1950s, and the number of civil wars since the early 1990s. It argues that the fact that these forces persist, or have strengthened, provides grounds for cautious optimism about the future of global security.

Part II examines the paradox of mortality rates that decline during the overwhelming majority of today’s wars, as well as the challenges and controversies involved in measuring indirect war deaths—those caused by war-exacerbated disease and malnutrition.

Part III, “Trends in Human Insecurity,” reviews recent trends in conflict numbers and death tolls around the world, and updates the conflict and other trend data in previous HSRP publications. Read more