British Prime Minister David Cameron’s grand conference will bring together many parties but no one is forecasting a breakthrough

SOMALIA | BRITAIN No great expectations British Prime Minister David Cameron’s grand conference will bring together many parties but no one is forecasting a breakthrough After two decades of political mayhem, Somalis and more perspicacious foreign diplomats are intensely sceptical about high-level conferences. Many approach the London Conference on Somalia on 23 February with muted hopes of any political advance and say that its most important contribution will be to raise the profile of Somalia’s internal political and social crisis, plagued by intermittent conflict and chronic food shortage. British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Foreign Secretary William Hague have evidently succeeded on the promotion front. Thanks to the Foreign Office’s invitations to Arab countries, it is the first big Somalia meeting in which several Muslim states are seriously involved. The challenge to the London conference will be to go beyond the recent International Contact Group (ICG) on Somalia or the United Nations Security Council. Both those meetings endorsed policies decided elsewhere and seemed unable to assess why those policies are not working. Delegates in London could start the search for a strategy. Announced by Cameron in late November 2011, the London Conference was supposed to offer fresh thinking on Somalia’s current political dynamics. It promised to broaden the international representation in efforts to tackle Somalia’s crisis and to strengthen the role of the UN there. Central to that is Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), veteran Tanzanian diplomat Augustine Philip Mahiga. Mahiga has held the fort in difficult times but is reticent about spelling out any vision of an eventual solution. He may take comfort from the support he receives from the East African Community but he is prisoner of a dysfunctional UN Political Office on Somalia. UNPOS suffers from internal inefficiencies and rivalries, we hear. The Deputy SRSG, Austrian diplomat Christian Manahl (who worked in Congo-Kinshasa and Sudan), attempted reform but was outmanoeuvred and recently recalled to UN headquarters in New York, says a diplomatic source. The UN Office is also obliged to pursue a political strategy that cannot survive the end of the transition period, when the writ of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) ends on 23 August. What happens after that should – but may not – be central to discussions in London. Neither UNPOS nor the SRSG have spelled out how the future institutions might work nor have they publicly identified the emerging leaders who could manage the political transition. The dual-track approach There seems to be a deep ambiguity about the ‘dual-track’ approach in Somalia. Pushed strongly by the United States, it involves recognising the so-called central authority of the TFG in Mogadishu but also showing a willingness to work with the local and regional entities in Somaliland and Puntland. Although the devolved authority of those two entities is widely accepted, UN officials have been slow to engage with them. It is diplomatically delicate: Somaliland is petitioning the UN for statehood but cannot get the African Union to recognise it, despite open support from South Africa and Ghana, and covert support from Ethiopia. Most critically, the UNPOS lacks a political strategy to confront the Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen and translate recent military advances into political gains. Nor has it got a clear policy toward the encroachment of Kenya’s and Ethiopia’s armies in Somalia. Neither Nairobi nor Addis Ababa saw fit to tell the UN that they were sending their armies into Somalia, and have no interest in coordinating their plans with the UN. The London Conference is not going to change any of that. The draft final communiqué, we understand, is nearly identical in substance to that of the ICG meeting in Djibouti on 5-6 February. The Conference appears to have been prompted by concern over the recent famine in Somalia and the Horn of Africa and by worry about the radicalisation of one of Somalia’s largest diaspora communities just before the Olympic Games in July. The Conference lacked the preparatory groundwork needed to generate a new direction for international policy on Somalia, say its diplomatic critics. As Africa Confidential went to press, the 53 delegations expected will discuss the future of Somalia up to August, with little idea of what is to happen afterwards. There is no strategy on how to confront Al Shabaab beyond the usual military and security policies. This includes a proposal to raise the number of troops in the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) to 17,000. Nothing has been said about the unhealthy polarisation between the West and the Muslim countries (Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates) which are being put forward as new sources of funding. They complain they are under pressure to endorse strategic priorities that favour Ethiopia and the USA. Although the preparatory meetings may not produce a groundbreaking conference, they did table important issues and obliged states to make their positions clear. The most striking example was the debate on Al Shabaab. Qatar, Turkey, the UAE and Scandinavian countries favoured engagement, and Britain and some other European countries looked interested. The USA, however, firmly opposed any further discussion of the idea, with strong backing from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD, where Ethiopia has great influence). As has happened before, Britain immediately lost interest and the debate closed. Therefore, countries such as Qatar (which has been accused by UN investigators of covertly arming Al Shabaab via Eritrea) may be moving towards negotiation but in the absence of any international framework. The announcement of a conference in Istanbul in June to focus on development issues is a small consolation prize for interested Muslim governments. It risks being as irrelevant as the spring 2009 conference organised by the then SRSG, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah. Conferees were planning the reconstruction of Mogadishu in a five-star hotel in Istanbul as bloody war blazed in the Somali capital. As daily clashes demonstrate, security in Mogadishu and towns liberated from Al Shabaab may not improve enough to allow ambitious reconstruction. The timing is also problematic. Western states, led by the US and Britain, seem to be rerunning their policies of early 2007 when they celebrated the Ethiopian intervention and the return of the TFG to Mogadishu. Then, Western states were not inclined to consolidate the TFG’s return with the economic help which might have provided it with a sliver of legitimacy. If progress is to be made, the population needs to see quickly that economic benefits will follow any defeat of Al Shabaab. Complex institutional and political developments will not enthuse Somalis: after two decades of mayhem, they want financing for schools and clinics, as well as jobs. After Al Shabaab At the preparatory meetings for London, Amisom’s recent military successes were celebrated but European diplomats did not hide their concern that there was no credible plan to fill a political vacuum left by a defeated Al Shabaab. The expansion of Amisom may result in more targets for the enemy than in more security, as in Afghanistan. IGAD countries have already divided south-central Somalia into zones of influence with little consideration for history or Somali views: military planners do not factor in such niceties. Kenya will hold sway over Lower and Middle Juba, where the Ogaden clan is dominant, as it is in Kenyan Somali politics. Gedo is associated with Bay and Bakool and would constitute the best possible buffer zone for Ethiopia. Apart from Beled Weyne, which is currently allocated to Amisom’s Djiboutian contingent, the least warlike of them, the Central Region will not benefit from an increased Amisom presence. The proxy forces there get substantial support from Ethiopian and Western security services. Kenyan troops’ inability to take over Kismayo or even Afmadow, plus the many clashes in Beled Weyne, could encourage a fight-back by Al Shabaab. If it successfully takes on the Kenyan and Ethiopian forces, together with their local proxies, Al Shabaab could regain some of the popular support it has lost. As for the TFG, the sole option offered for discussion is a new constitution. In any other country, the presence of four foreign armies, an ongoing civil war and the lack of a legitimate government – many see the TFG as a gang of looters – would not be the best moment for a highly polarised population to discuss a constitution. The SRSG and UNPOS downplay such limitations. Yet the institutional framework limits interaction with any Somali actors apart from the TFG. The question of who will enforce this new dispensation is unresolved, too. By making the constitution the only option available, the international community risks becoming hostage, again, to a chaotic constitutional process that cannot succeed in such a short time. This will also offer new opportunities to Islamist militants. The London Conference will announce sanctions against spoilers intent on derailing the processes and corrupt officials. This is likely to fail and will trigger anger in Somalia, since the main targets are the more than 300 members of parliament who sacked the Speaker, Sharif Hasan Sheikh Adan, last December, although UNPOS still invites him to all international gatherings. For years, the international community has threatened to take action against corrupt TFG ministers and MPs. None have ever come before a court although many pay tens of thousands of US dollars into their bank accounts in Western countries (especially Britain and the US) and buy property. Some of the spoilers may not be Somali but regional states. While IGAD presented itself as unified in the preparatory meetings, beyond the 1964 mutual Defence Pact against any Somali aggression, Ethiopia and Kenya do not share the same view of solutions. Will other governments sanction Addis Ababa or Nairobi because they put their own clients in charge in their ‘liberated areas’ instead of genuinely local representatives? The Somaliland government is invited but will face bitter criticism if its delegates return with the usual set of pledges and counter-terrorist cooperation projects. Somalilanders and their backers in the UK, may resent that Galmudug (South Gaalkaayo) is ranked in protocol at the London Conference with Somaliland. In her excellent new book, Getting Somalia Wrong, BBC journalist Mary Harper points out that international conferences on Somalia ‘have produced a succession of weak transitional governments which have paid lip-service to federalism but have tended to be highly centralised. They lack popular legitimacy because Somalis tend to see them as entirely foreign creations.’ The London delegates will struggle to buck the trend. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2012 http://www.africa-confidential.com [http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/4340/No_great_expectations]

Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government [TFG] expires in a half-year; and emboldened troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia [AMISOM], Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to deal the weakened [though still potent] extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab further defeats. This confluence of factors presents the best chance in years for peace and stability in the south and centre of the country. To achieve that, however, requires regional and wider international unity of purpose and an agreement on basic principles; otherwise spoilers could undermine all peacebuilding efforts. The crisis has been climbing steadily back up the international agenda. The one-day London Somalia Conference on 23 February will bring together senior representatives from over 40 countries, the UN, African Union [AU], European Union [EU], World Bank, Inter-Governmental Authority for Development [IGAD], Organisation of Islamic Conference [OIC] and League of Arab States. Somalia’s Transitional Federal Institutions [TFIs] will participate, as well as the presidents of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug [regional governments] and representatives of the largest armed group, Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a [ASWJ]. It should prepare the way for desperately needed greater coordination, especially with Gulf and regional states, as well as between AMISOM and the UN. Coordination is required because the mandate of the TFG is set to run out in August 2012. Although it has failed to achieve any of its core objectives, many officials desire another extension, such as it received a year ago. But it is unreformable – too many of its members benefit from the fully unsatisfactory status quo. It must not be extended. Instead, the London Conference should agree on a new political framework and principles for governing Somalia. Readmore

Undercounting, Overcounting, and the Longevity of Flawed Estimates: Statistics on Sexual Violence in Conflict

Sexual violence has been associated with several recent conflicts and their aftermath, including – but not limited to – conflicts in Bosnia, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo , East Timor, Liberia, and Rwanda. Recent efforts by the international community have sought to address wartime sexual violence. In March 2007, the United Nations Action Against Sexual Violence in Conflict body was launched to coordinate efforts across 13 United Nations entities and increase efforts to end sexual violence during and in the wake of armed conflict. In January 2010, United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, appointed Margot Wallström as his Special Representative on sexual violence in conflict. Further, in December 2010, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1960, which called for commitments to “enhance data collection and analysis of incidents, trends and patterns of rape and other forms of sexual violence” to improve targeting and policy response. These coordinated efforts to influence policy and the call for rigorous research including enhanced data collection on wartime sexual violence are long overdue. Although standard reporting and data collection efforts of any kind are compromised in situations of civil unrest, our understanding of sexual violence dynamics is particularly poor. Despite this acknowledgement, flawed estimates are often perpetuated by well intentioned actors because of the desire to provide numbers to illustrate the magnitude of violence. Citation of secondary sources with little understanding or explanation of methodology and limitations of the estimate is rampant. Sources of bias and limitations specific to research on wartime sexual violence are numerous but can be broadly categorized into macro-level [or institutional] and micro-level [or individual] constraints. Among the macro-level constraints, as previously mentioned, are logistical barriers to collecting large-scale nationally-representative surveys and the break-down of routine reporting systems during conflict. As a result, the majority of available databases of estimates from conflict areas come from reports to law enforcement authorities or record reviews at health facilities. Estimates from these sources are typically lower than the true prevalence of sexual violence because they capture only cases that were reported or where medical attention was sought, which are often only a fraction of the true incidence. Readmore

No Place for Children: Child Recruitment, Forced Marriage, and Attacks on Schools in Somalia

Children in war-torn Somalia face horrific abuses, including forced recruitment as soldiers, forced marriage and rape, and attacks on their schools by the parties to the conflict. Those responsible are never held to account. This report documents al-Shabaab’s targeting of children for recruitment as soldiers, forced marriage, and rape, with a focus on abuses in 2010 and 2011. In addition, it documents how the group has targeted students, teachers, and school buildings for attack. Al-Shabaab fighters have also used schools as firing positions, and the students inside as “human shields,” placing children at risk of injury or death from indiscriminate or disproportionate return fire from TFG or AMISOM forces. Children have served within TFG forces and TFG-aligned militias, although Human Rights Watch has not been able to independently confirm how widespread children’s participation is. Readmore

A Shift in Focus: Putting the Interests of Somali People First

Responsibility for this situation lies first and foremost in Somalia, where warring factions are accused of impeding and diverting aid flows, but the international community has also been at fault. Policies focused more on international security concerns than on the needs, interests and wishes of the Somali people have inadvertently fueled both the conflict and the humanitarian crisis. In February 2012, key governments and institutions from the region and the wider Islamic and Western world will meet in London to chart a way forward. They must seize this opportunity to refocus on the Somali people that past policies have failed, developing more coherent strategies to ensure that aid and protection reach those who need it and addressing the root causes of the protracted conflict and chronic vulnerability in the country Readmore